Report on Soyabean (January 2015 Outlook)

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Recommendation
Hold Long and Buy again @ 3300
CMP 3300
Target 3360—3400---3430
Revise Stop Loss3250

Overview
In our last report, we recommended buying in Soyabean (Dec) around 3250 with stop loss of 3170 for the
initial target of 3380. It made a low of 3196 and bounced back to 3392 mark and now Soyabean (Jan) is
trading around 3320 mark. As per latest release, in USDA showed that total U.S. oilseed production for
2014/15 is projected at 117.0 million tons down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean
exports are increased 40 million bushels to 1,760 million reflecting the record export pace in recent weeks
and prospects for additional sales and shipments ahead of the South American harvest. With crush
unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 410 million bushels, down 40 million from
last month but still the highest since 2006/07. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2014/15 is
projected at $9.00 to $11.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at
$340 to $380 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected
at 32 to 36 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends reflecting lower-than-expected early season
vegetable oil prices and lower petroleum prices. Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a
record 530.7 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most
of the change on increases for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seed. Global soybean production is
projected at a record 312.8 million tons with gains this month for Canada, Ukraine, and Paraguay. Global
rapeseed production is projected at a record 71.9 million tons, up 1.2 million mainly on increased production
for Canada, which is estimated at 15.6 million tons based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada.
Other changes include increased sunflower seed production for EU and reduced peanut production for
Argentina. Palm oil production is reduced for Indonesia for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 on revised yields.
Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is projected at 135.3 million tons, up 0.8 million from last month. Soybean
exports account for most of the change with higher projections for the United States, Paraguay, Ukraine, and
Canada only partly offset by reductions for Argentina and Brazil. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at
104.1 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month and 23.5 million above year-earlier levels. Increased
rapeseed stocks in Canada and higher soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset with lower
soybean stocks in the United States. Global soybean production is higher on larger crops in Canada, Paraguay,
and Ukraine. Soybean trade is raised as increased exports from the United States and others more than offset
lower Argentine and Brazilian shipments. The U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged for soybeans, but
raised for soymeal. U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in November averaged $433 per ton, up $17 from last month.
As of the week ending November 27, the 2014/15 U.S. soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus
accumulated exports) to China totaled 25.0 million tons compared to 24.0 million a year ago. Total
commitments to the world are 39.7 million tons, compared to 37.6 million for the same period last year.
Though global soybean meal prices are down from last year, they remain higher than expected given the
improved soybean supply situation. Reduced exports from key countries have constricted global soybean
meal supplies and supported prices. Although Argentina’s situation has a major impact (see October report),
others such as India are also contributing to tight markets. As per Indian Agriculture ministry report showed
that Soyabean sowing in the year 2014 at 110.22 lack hectares down from the previous year of 122.20 lac
hectare while above 5 years average of 95.70 lac hectare. Almost 90% of Soyabean land crop covered by
Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra by 55.46 and 38.01 lac hectare respectively. Indian oil seed production for
2014/15 estimates for November around 38.04 million metric tonne while projected for December 2014/15 is
same of 38.04 million metric tonne. Soyabean imports estimate for November of 1.850 million metric tonne
which is up by 0.20 million metric tonne in compare with 2013/14 while projected figure for December
2014/15 is of 1.925 million metric tonne. Here domestic consumption estimate and projected for November
Overview
In our last report, we recommended buying in Soyabean (Dec) around 3250 with stop loss of 3170 for the
initial target of 3380. It made a low of 3196 and bounced back to 3392 mark and now Soyabean (Jan) is
trading around 3320 mark. As per latest release, in USDA showed that total U.S. oilseed production for
2014/15 is projected at 117.0 million tons down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean
exports are increased 40 million bushels to 1,760 million reflecting the record export pace in recent weeks
and prospects for additional sales and shipments ahead of the South American harvest. With crush
unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 410 million bushels, down 40 million from
last month but still the highest since 2006/07. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2014/15 is
projected at $9.00 to $11.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at
$340 to $380 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected
at 32 to 36 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends reflecting lower-than-expected early season
vegetable oil prices and lower petroleum prices. Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a
record 530.7 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most
of the change on increases for soybeans, rapeseed, and sunflower seed. Global soybean production is
projected at a record 312.8 million tons with gains this month for Canada, Ukraine, and Paraguay. Global
rapeseed production is projected at a record 71.9 million tons, up 1.2 million mainly on increased production
for Canada, which is estimated at 15.6 million tons based on the latest survey results from Statistics Canada.
Other changes include increased sunflower seed production for EU and reduced peanut production for
Argentina. Palm oil production is reduced for Indonesia for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 on revised yields.
Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is projected at 135.3 million tons, up 0.8 million from last month. Soybean
exports account for most of the change with higher projections for the United States, Paraguay, Ukraine, and
Canada only partly offset by reductions for Argentina and Brazil. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at
104.1 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month and 23.5 million above year-earlier levels. Increased
rapeseed stocks in Canada and higher soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset with lower
soybean stocks in the United States. Global soybean production is higher on larger crops in Canada, Paraguay,
and Ukraine. Soybean trade is raised as increased exports from the United States and others more than offset
lower Argentine and Brazilian shipments. The U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged for soybeans, but
raised for soymeal. U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in November averaged $433 per ton, up $17 from last month.
As of the week ending November 27, the 2014/15 U.S. soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus
accumulated exports) to China totaled 25.0 million tons compared to 24.0 million a year ago. Total
commitments to the world are 39.7 million tons, compared to 37.6 million for the same period last year.
Though global soybean meal prices are down from last year, they remain higher than expected given the
improved soybean supply situation. Reduced exports from key countries have constricted global soybean
meal supplies and supported prices. Although Argentina’s situation has a major impact (see October report),
others such as India are also contributing to tight markets. As per Indian Agriculture ministry report showed
that Soyabean sowing in the year 2014 at 110.22 lack hectares down from the previous year of 122.20 lac
hectare while above 5 years average of 95.70 lac hectare. Almost 90% of Soyabean land crop covered by
Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra by 55.46 and 38.01 lac hectare respectively. Indian oil seed production for
2014/15 estimates for November around 38.04 million metric tonne while projected for December 2014/15 is
same of 38.04 million metric tonne. Soyabean imports estimate for November of 1.850 million metric tonne
which is up by 0.20 million metric tonne in compare with 2013/14 while projected figure for December
2014/15 is of 1.925 million metric tonne. Here domestic consumption estimate and projected for November

LINK
http://www.indianivesh.in/Admin/Upload/635544879519942500_Soyabean%20(Jan)%20Report.pdf