Forwarding you the Multiple Scrip’s Result Updates. Kindly click on the links to view the report.
07 June 2013
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 07-Jun-2013
| FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 07-Jun-2013 | |||||||
| BUY | SELL | OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY | |||||
| No. of contracts | Amt in Crores | No. of contracts | Amt in Crores | No. of contracts | Amt in Crores | ||
| INDEX FUTURES | 54573 | 1626.58 | 71715 | 2135.55 | 231898 | 6868.21 | -508.97 |
| INDEX OPTIONS | 674064 | 19992.98 | 621257 | 18536.43 | 1726578 | 50877.85 | 1456.55 |
| STOCK FUTURES | 57514 | 1664.52 | 60018 | 1740.25 | 1018350 | 28462.49 | -75.73 |
| STOCK OPTIONS | 42803 | 1185.68 | 42227 | 1165.40 | 62658 | 1611.57 | 20.28 |
| Total | 892.13 | ||||||
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FII & DII trading activity on NSE, BSE and MCX-SX 07-06-2013
| Category | Buy | Sell | Net | |
| Value | Value | Value | ||
| FII | 2444.08 | 2286.18 | 157.9 | |
| DII | 980.79 | 808.09 | 172.7 | |
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Automobile Sector Monthly Update – May 2013 :: Angel Broking
Automobile Sector Monthly Update – May 2013
Slowdown continues
Domestic automakers continued with their poor run in May 2013, broadly on the expected line, due to slowdown in economic activity and negative consumer sentiments. The slowdown continues to be prominent in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV), passenger car and two-wheeler segments. The utility vehicle (UV) and light commercial vehicle (LCV) segments, which so far had remained insulated from the slowdown, too have started witnessing demand pressures. Going ahead, we expect volume growth to remain sluggish in 1HFY2014 due to high inventory levels and weak consumer sentiments. Nonetheless, we expect volumes to recover in 2HFY2014 on the back of further easing of interest rates, festival demand and also due to favorable base effect.
Kindly click on the following link to view the Report.
Maxwell Industries :: Karvy
Expect Margin Expansion on Excise Benefits
and Premium Products
Maxwell Industries Q4FY13 sales & EBITDA grew 16% & 10% YoY to Rs.
581mn & Rs. 42mn while it reported net loss of Rs. 1.4mn as against net loss
of Rs. 8.6mn in the corresponding quarter. For full year FY13, sales &
EBITDA grew 14% & 11% while it reported net profit at Rs. 29mn vs loss of
Rs 12mn in FY12.
Revenue Growth: The Company’s top‐line grew 16.2% YoY to Rs. 581 mn
(our expectations Rs. 595 mn) during Q4FY13. During FY13, revenue grew
14.0% to Rs. 2,537 mn where realizations grew over 20% YoY. Maxwell has
introduced ~80 new styles in FY13 while some premium products are in final
stages of launch. It is focused on new products under Eminence & VIP
brands to establish itself as a premium innerwear manufacturer. This is
expected to further improve operating margins on higher realizations.
Operating margins: The Company’s EBITDA grew 7.4% YoY to Rs. 41.7 mn
(our expectations Rs. 53.5 mn) during Q4FY13 on account of higher advt.
expenses. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 7.2%; slipped 57bps YoY.
Adv. exp were up by 7x YoY to Rs. 44.0 mn for Q4FY13. EBITDA for FY13
grew 11.0% to Rs. 205mn where the Company spent Rs. 133.3mn in Adv. Exp
(Budgeted Rs. 100mn) compared to Rs. 37.7mn during FY12. Going forward,
better operating margins are expected on lower advt. exp and higher
realizations on excise duty removal.
Maxwell reported net loss of Rs. 1.4mn for Q4FY13 compared to loss of Rs.
8.6mn in the corresponding quarter. However for FY13, Maxwell reported
net income of Rs. 28.5mn against net loss of Rs. 12.3mn in FY12.
We revised down our expected Sales by 6.8% and 10.4% & EBITDA by 1.9%
& 14.5% for FY14E and FY15E respectively on slower volume growth. Net
Income revised down by 13.1% and 33.1% for FY14E and FY15E respectively.
Outlook & Valuations
We expect revenues & net income to grow at a CAGR of 16% and 111% over
FY13‐FY15E. At CMP of Rs. 14, the stock trades at 5.3x & 7.0x FY15E
EV/EBITDA and earnings. We reiterate our “BUY” recommendation and
downgrade our target price to Rs. 21 (Rs. 24) per share based on 6.5x FY15E
EV/EBITDA & 10.5x FY15 EPS, having potential upside of 49%.
and Premium Products
Maxwell Industries Q4FY13 sales & EBITDA grew 16% & 10% YoY to Rs.
581mn & Rs. 42mn while it reported net loss of Rs. 1.4mn as against net loss
of Rs. 8.6mn in the corresponding quarter. For full year FY13, sales &
EBITDA grew 14% & 11% while it reported net profit at Rs. 29mn vs loss of
Rs 12mn in FY12.
Revenue Growth: The Company’s top‐line grew 16.2% YoY to Rs. 581 mn
(our expectations Rs. 595 mn) during Q4FY13. During FY13, revenue grew
14.0% to Rs. 2,537 mn where realizations grew over 20% YoY. Maxwell has
introduced ~80 new styles in FY13 while some premium products are in final
stages of launch. It is focused on new products under Eminence & VIP
brands to establish itself as a premium innerwear manufacturer. This is
expected to further improve operating margins on higher realizations.
Operating margins: The Company’s EBITDA grew 7.4% YoY to Rs. 41.7 mn
(our expectations Rs. 53.5 mn) during Q4FY13 on account of higher advt.
expenses. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 7.2%; slipped 57bps YoY.
Adv. exp were up by 7x YoY to Rs. 44.0 mn for Q4FY13. EBITDA for FY13
grew 11.0% to Rs. 205mn where the Company spent Rs. 133.3mn in Adv. Exp
(Budgeted Rs. 100mn) compared to Rs. 37.7mn during FY12. Going forward,
better operating margins are expected on lower advt. exp and higher
realizations on excise duty removal.
Maxwell reported net loss of Rs. 1.4mn for Q4FY13 compared to loss of Rs.
8.6mn in the corresponding quarter. However for FY13, Maxwell reported
net income of Rs. 28.5mn against net loss of Rs. 12.3mn in FY12.
We revised down our expected Sales by 6.8% and 10.4% & EBITDA by 1.9%
& 14.5% for FY14E and FY15E respectively on slower volume growth. Net
Income revised down by 13.1% and 33.1% for FY14E and FY15E respectively.
Outlook & Valuations
We expect revenues & net income to grow at a CAGR of 16% and 111% over
FY13‐FY15E. At CMP of Rs. 14, the stock trades at 5.3x & 7.0x FY15E
EV/EBITDA and earnings. We reiterate our “BUY” recommendation and
downgrade our target price to Rs. 21 (Rs. 24) per share based on 6.5x FY15E
EV/EBITDA & 10.5x FY15 EPS, having potential upside of 49%.
Cipla Weak quarter, outlook intact; Buy :: Anand Rathi
Key takeaways
Muted quarter. Cipla’s 4QFY13 revenue grew 5.4% yoy to `19.7bn, less than
our expected `20.9bn, chiefly due to lower domestic growth and a decline in
APIs. Its EBITDA margin declined 60bps yoy to 20.8%, less than our
estimated 23.8%, on lower domestic revenue and a 300-bp yoy increase in staff
costs. Adjusted PAT fell 8.3% yoy to `2.7bn (vs our expected `3.5bn) on the
lower revenue growth, EBITDA margin decline and a higher effective tax rate.
Export formulations – key growth driver. Revenue growth at 5.4% yoy
was restrained. Export formulations was the key growth driver, with a 12%
yoy increase in revenue led by the anti-asthma, anti-allergy, ARVs and antidepressant
segments. However, on the high base, export API revenue fell
24% yoy. Domestic formulations registered 5.2% yoy growth, much less than
our estimated 10% due to the slowdown in industry growth particularly in the
acute segments.
Our take. We believe that the weak performance chiefly stemmed from
restrained growth in domestic formulations and the shift of some tender
business in Africa to FY14. This also cut into the margin. Management is
confident of healthy double-digit growth in FY14 and has guided to more
R&D expenditure to build a future pipeline. Considering 4QFY13’s subdued
performance, the 100-bp rise in R&D spend and the higher tax rate, we lower
our FY14e and FY15e revenue 1.6% and 0.3% respectively, and adjusted
PAT estimates 5.7% and 5.3%. The Cipla Medpro acquisition is expected to
be complete by 2QFY14 and we expect it to be 3.5% EPS accretive in FY15.
We have not factored this acquisition into our estimates but have valued it
separately.
We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a revised target of `472 based on 21x
Sep’14e earnings and `17 for the Cipla Medpro acquisition. Risks. Currency
fluctuations, regulatory hurdles.
Muted quarter. Cipla’s 4QFY13 revenue grew 5.4% yoy to `19.7bn, less than
our expected `20.9bn, chiefly due to lower domestic growth and a decline in
APIs. Its EBITDA margin declined 60bps yoy to 20.8%, less than our
estimated 23.8%, on lower domestic revenue and a 300-bp yoy increase in staff
costs. Adjusted PAT fell 8.3% yoy to `2.7bn (vs our expected `3.5bn) on the
lower revenue growth, EBITDA margin decline and a higher effective tax rate.
Export formulations – key growth driver. Revenue growth at 5.4% yoy
was restrained. Export formulations was the key growth driver, with a 12%
yoy increase in revenue led by the anti-asthma, anti-allergy, ARVs and antidepressant
segments. However, on the high base, export API revenue fell
24% yoy. Domestic formulations registered 5.2% yoy growth, much less than
our estimated 10% due to the slowdown in industry growth particularly in the
acute segments.
Our take. We believe that the weak performance chiefly stemmed from
restrained growth in domestic formulations and the shift of some tender
business in Africa to FY14. This also cut into the margin. Management is
confident of healthy double-digit growth in FY14 and has guided to more
R&D expenditure to build a future pipeline. Considering 4QFY13’s subdued
performance, the 100-bp rise in R&D spend and the higher tax rate, we lower
our FY14e and FY15e revenue 1.6% and 0.3% respectively, and adjusted
PAT estimates 5.7% and 5.3%. The Cipla Medpro acquisition is expected to
be complete by 2QFY14 and we expect it to be 3.5% EPS accretive in FY15.
We have not factored this acquisition into our estimates but have valued it
separately.
We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a revised target of `472 based on 21x
Sep’14e earnings and `17 for the Cipla Medpro acquisition. Risks. Currency
fluctuations, regulatory hurdles.
NMDC :: Religare Research
Cheap valuations, high dividend yield – BUY
NMDC reported a mixed Q4FY13 with revenues surprising positively on higher sales volume and stable realisations, but profits slipping on increased selling expense and higher provisions towards Karnataka mining cases. NMDC announced dividend of Rs 7/sh with dividend yield rising to ~6%, providing support to the stock. We cut FY15 earnings by 10% on lower realisations and higher selling expense, and revise our TP to Rs 175 (from Rs 190). Maintain BUY as risk-reward is favourable and volume ramp-up remains the key trigger.
Revenues surprise on higher volumes: Q4FY13 revenues came in at Rs 32bn (+24% YoY, +56% QoQ), ahead of estimates due to above-expected sales volume at 8.24mt (+55% QoQ, +27% YoY) and stable realisations of Rs 3,899/t (+1% QoQ).
Profitability disappoints on higher selling expense: EBITDA was lower than expected at Rs 17.5bn (-11% YoY, +26% QoQ) with EBITDA margin disappointing at 54.6%. This was largely on account of higher selling and other expenses, along with a one-off of Rs 40bn related to the Karnataka mining ban in Q4FY13. Adjusting for the one-off, EBITDA/t was still low at Rs 2,440/t (-7% QoQ) largely due to higher selling expense at Rs 476/t (+43% QoQ).
Increased dividend a big positive: NMDC has announced dividend of Rs 7/sh (Rs 4/sh in FY12), taking the payout ratio to 41% (from 24% in FY12). We expect dividends to go up in future years and the dividend yield of ~6% should provide further support to the stock.
Maintain BUY: We cut FY15 earnings estimates by 10% on lower realisations and higher selling expense, but maintain BUY as the risk-reward is clearly favourable and volume ramp-up remains the key stock trigger. Our new March’14 TP of Rs 175 is set at 5x FY15E EV/EBITDA. Decline in global prices remains a key risk to our call.
NMDC reported a mixed Q4FY13 with revenues surprising positively on higher sales volume and stable realisations, but profits slipping on increased selling expense and higher provisions towards Karnataka mining cases. NMDC announced dividend of Rs 7/sh with dividend yield rising to ~6%, providing support to the stock. We cut FY15 earnings by 10% on lower realisations and higher selling expense, and revise our TP to Rs 175 (from Rs 190). Maintain BUY as risk-reward is favourable and volume ramp-up remains the key trigger.
Revenues surprise on higher volumes: Q4FY13 revenues came in at Rs 32bn (+24% YoY, +56% QoQ), ahead of estimates due to above-expected sales volume at 8.24mt (+55% QoQ, +27% YoY) and stable realisations of Rs 3,899/t (+1% QoQ).
Profitability disappoints on higher selling expense: EBITDA was lower than expected at Rs 17.5bn (-11% YoY, +26% QoQ) with EBITDA margin disappointing at 54.6%. This was largely on account of higher selling and other expenses, along with a one-off of Rs 40bn related to the Karnataka mining ban in Q4FY13. Adjusting for the one-off, EBITDA/t was still low at Rs 2,440/t (-7% QoQ) largely due to higher selling expense at Rs 476/t (+43% QoQ).
Increased dividend a big positive: NMDC has announced dividend of Rs 7/sh (Rs 4/sh in FY12), taking the payout ratio to 41% (from 24% in FY12). We expect dividends to go up in future years and the dividend yield of ~6% should provide further support to the stock.
Maintain BUY: We cut FY15 earnings estimates by 10% on lower realisations and higher selling expense, but maintain BUY as the risk-reward is clearly favourable and volume ramp-up remains the key stock trigger. Our new March’14 TP of Rs 175 is set at 5x FY15E EV/EBITDA. Decline in global prices remains a key risk to our call.
Invest early to build a healthy corpus :: Business Line
I am 55, and work in a PSU. I retire at 60 with no pension benefits. I have generally invested in all the ‘conservative’ financial instruments such as VPF, PPF, bank fixed deposits, NSC, gold and insurance policies of LIC. I have also purchased a flat. I keep reading that investing in mutual funds is the only way to beat inflation and that it will add significantly to the retirement kitty.
I would like to invest Rs 15,000-20,000 every month for the next five years. Considering my profile, can you suggest 4-5 mutual funds I can invest in? These investments should not be too risky. I am looking at returns of around 15 per cent. Once I retire should I move to MIPs?
C.A. Rao
As you yourself have stated, most of your investments are in traditional products — mostly debt oriented schemes.
You should have started investments in mutual funds a little earlier, say, at 45 or 50. That would have enabled your investments to grow at a fair pace to give you a healthy corpus.
Investments in equity or equity mutual funds give you a better chance at beating inflation. But over the last 4-5 years, inflation itself has been in double digits and most diversified equity funds failed to even match this rate, let alone beat it.
Of course, if you take a 10-year horizon, then diversified equity funds have handsomely beaten inflation.
That is why we insist on longer term investments of 10-15 years for you to have meaningful capital appreciation.
So, with your low risk appetite and investment horizon of five years, achieving 15 per cent annual returns may be quite challenging. You will do well to temper it down to 10 per cent.
Split Rs 20,000 as follows: invest Rs 5,000 each in Franklin India Bluechip, HDFC Equity and Quantum Long Term Equity. Park Rs 3,000 in HDFC Balanced and Rs 2,000 in IDFC Premier Equity.
The portfolio is mainly large-cap focused, which is relatively less risky. We have included a mid-cap fund to perk up returns.
At the end of five years, reduce exposure to equity funds substantially or exit them altogether if you have little penchant for risk. If there is any abnormal rally in the market, book profits and move the proceeds to safer avenues.
Move to safe debt avenues or MIPs after you turn 60 and opt for monthly or quarterly payouts, especially as you have no pension benefits, post-retirement. Some of the MIPs you can consider are: HDFC MIP Long Term, Canara Robeco MIP and Reliance MIP.
***I am 47 years old and have been investing Rs 30,000 every month for the past one year under SIP mode in the following funds: HDFC Mid Cap Opportunities; ICICI Pru Focused Bluechip; UTI Opportunities; Reliance Banking; IDFC Premier Equity and ICICI Pru Discovery.
I am investing this for developing a corpus for my old age. Are my investments on the right track?
Subramanyan
It is nice to note that you have been investing systematically for your retirement. Having said that, there seems to be no specific focus to your portfolio and choices appear quite random.
Also, there are too many mid-cap funds in your portfolio and a banking fund as well. For the record, Reliance Banking is a fund with an excellent track record over the long-term. But sector funds require timing for entry and exit. So, stay away from such funds for long-term portfolio building purposes. Also, we assume that you have made sufficient allocation to other investment avenues such as debt (FDs, RDs, PPF, etc), gold and real-estate.
You have not stated the allocation to each scheme. So consider splitting Rs 30,000 as follows: invest Rs 6,000 each in ICICI Pru Focussed Bluechip Equity, UTI Opportunities and Quantum Long Term Equity. Invest Rs 4,500 each in IDFC Premier Equity and HDFC Midcap Opportunities.
Exit ICICI Pru Discovery, even though it has a proven track record as you already have two mid-cap funds in your portfolio and another scheme from the ICICI stable.
Your portfolio now has a blend of large-, multi- and mid-cap funds, making it a balanced portfolio.
Park the balance Rs 3,000 in Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund. If you already have sufficient debt investments, invest Rs 3,000 in Reliance Gold Savings. Review your portfolio once every year and take corrective action to rebalance. Also, try to weed out underperformers.
Move proceeds from equity funds to safer debt avenues if you reach your target corpus ahead of the anticipated time.
Rural Electrification :: Religare Research
Strong business growth; valuations attractive – BUY
REC’s Q4FY13 PAT at Rs 9.6bn (up 26% YoY) came in lower than our/ consensus estimates, but largely on account of standard asset provisions of Rs 1.06bn. NII was marginally lower despite strong disbursement and loan book growth. Asset quality was stable and business growth strong with loan book/disbursements/sanctions up 26%/ 56%/ 41% YoY in FY14. Valuations at 1.1x FY14 BV are cheap given ROEs of 24% and receding concerns on SEB exposure. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 300.
Business growth strong: REC sanctioned/disbursed loans of Rs 183bn/Rs 144bn in Q4FY13, taking its total sanctions/disbursements in FY14 to Rs 795bn/Rs 393bn (up 56%/41% YoY). Loans grew 26% YoY, SEB exposure 23% YoY and exposure to private developers 55% YoY (now 13% of total advances). We expect REC’s loan book to grow by 19% CAGR over FY13-FY15.
NIMs contract 29bps QoQ to 4.7%: The yield on advances declined by 60bps QoQ to 11.55% which, in our view, could be on account of disbursements made towards the end of the quarter. Cost of funds declined by 34bps QoQ as the incremental cost of borrowings stood at just 5.7% in Q4FY13 (due to access to tax-free bonds). We expect calc. NIMs to remain in the 4.5-4.7% range (as against 4.6% in FY13).
Asset quality stable: GNPLs/NNPLs remained stable QoQ at Rs 4.9bn/Rs 4bn (0.4%/0.3% of book). While the asset quality was stable, REC made provisions of Rs 1.1bn in Q4FY13 (which translates into provisions of ~8bps). We note that PFC also has already started making standard asset provisions and expect REC to continue with standard asset provisions of 8bps in FY14/FY15.
Risk-reward favourable: Valuations (5x FY14 EPS/1.1x FY14 BV) are attractive given strong ROEs (~24%) and likely earnings growth of ~20% over FY13-FY15. We restate our BUY rating and remain positive on the stock. SEB restructuring and steps taken by the government to improve fuel availability would be the key stock catalysts.
REC’s Q4FY13 PAT at Rs 9.6bn (up 26% YoY) came in lower than our/ consensus estimates, but largely on account of standard asset provisions of Rs 1.06bn. NII was marginally lower despite strong disbursement and loan book growth. Asset quality was stable and business growth strong with loan book/disbursements/sanctions up 26%/ 56%/ 41% YoY in FY14. Valuations at 1.1x FY14 BV are cheap given ROEs of 24% and receding concerns on SEB exposure. Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 300.
Business growth strong: REC sanctioned/disbursed loans of Rs 183bn/Rs 144bn in Q4FY13, taking its total sanctions/disbursements in FY14 to Rs 795bn/Rs 393bn (up 56%/41% YoY). Loans grew 26% YoY, SEB exposure 23% YoY and exposure to private developers 55% YoY (now 13% of total advances). We expect REC’s loan book to grow by 19% CAGR over FY13-FY15.
NIMs contract 29bps QoQ to 4.7%: The yield on advances declined by 60bps QoQ to 11.55% which, in our view, could be on account of disbursements made towards the end of the quarter. Cost of funds declined by 34bps QoQ as the incremental cost of borrowings stood at just 5.7% in Q4FY13 (due to access to tax-free bonds). We expect calc. NIMs to remain in the 4.5-4.7% range (as against 4.6% in FY13).
Asset quality stable: GNPLs/NNPLs remained stable QoQ at Rs 4.9bn/Rs 4bn (0.4%/0.3% of book). While the asset quality was stable, REC made provisions of Rs 1.1bn in Q4FY13 (which translates into provisions of ~8bps). We note that PFC also has already started making standard asset provisions and expect REC to continue with standard asset provisions of 8bps in FY14/FY15.
Risk-reward favourable: Valuations (5x FY14 EPS/1.1x FY14 BV) are attractive given strong ROEs (~24%) and likely earnings growth of ~20% over FY13-FY15. We restate our BUY rating and remain positive on the stock. SEB restructuring and steps taken by the government to improve fuel availability would be the key stock catalysts.
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