02 October 2012

External Trade - Trade deficit stabilises :: Edelweiss


Trade deficit in August at ~USD15.7bn was broadly same as ~USD15.5bn in July, as both imports and exports remained unchanged. However, looking at the longer range, for April-August, trade deficit narrowed to ~USD71bn compared to USD76bn in the same period last year. The decline in trade deficit despite sharp exports slowdown was primarily on account of fall in non-oil imports, particularly gold. In the coming quarter, the challenging external and domestic environment indicate that the current trend is likely to continue; ergo, trade deficit will also remain close to the current range.
Importantly, the current deficit range is not far from our FY13 expectation, in which we expect trade deficit and current account deficit to be ~USD185bn and ~USD65bn, respectively (~3.3% of GDP).
Regards,

Jaiprakash Associates - The wheel of fortune :: Edelweiss

We believe Jaiprakash Associates (JPA) offers 78% upside from the current level driven by robust 99% surge in EBITDA, led by cement and power, and supported by real estate. At near-trough EV/EBITDA of 8x, the EV is expected to rise 19%. With debt largely stable, we expect the equity values to appreciate. We highlight that the company’s EV/EBITDA multiples have contracted with rise in net debt/EBITDA and execution concerns. However, with commencement of projects and reduction of net debt/EBITDA, re-rating can potentially provide additional upsides. Our sensitivity analysis depicts a downside of 15% while higher cement margin and volume offers 125% upside, indicating favourable risk-reward. Ergo, we upgrade to ‘BUY’.

Angel Broking - Derivatives Report - 01.10.2012

Angel Broking - Market Summary - 01.10.2012

Angel Broking - Technical Report - 01.10.2012

Angel Broking - Market Outlook - 01.10.2012

Stocks in News:; EDEL


 Stocks in News
    Bharti hopeful of 50:50 JV with Walmart (ET)
    Govt approves Reliance Industries’s new field development plan (ET)
    Drug Cos could take INR 13-bn revenue hit on new pricing ruel (ET)
    EGoM on spectrum to meet on October 3 (ET)
    NTPC plans to float a JV to foray into power distribution (ET)
    GAAR panel may submit final report today (DNA)
    NMDC to set up 250-Mw power plant (BS)

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)


Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
    Like each Friday of September, the session was an eventful one and began with a bullish gap helping Nifty rally ~1.5% intraday and finally managed a close above 5700 with a gain of 0.95%. The index had been consolidating in a ‘flag’ pattern for the past four days and in continuation of its preceding up move, a bullish breakout was expected. However, the bulls were unable to get the index past its July 2011 cycle high of 5740 resulting in a strong supply halving the day’s gains. Nonetheless, Friday’s session marked the weekly, monthly and quarterly close, all in the positive. Nifty also registered a fresh 52-week high and its second best month of the CY 2012, with gains of ~8.5%. Importantly, longer term momentum cycles have rolled bullish, with monthly MACD giving a bullish crossover just above the zero line. Coming back to the daily charts, volumes were relatively lower on Friday, but the breadth was in favour of advances indicating a bullish trend in the broader markets. Even the volatility dipped down to 16.16 as tracked by the India VIX. ST momentum has turned OB, but continues to underline the bullish trend. We expect the uptrend to continue, breaching the old barrier of 5740, towards a test of 5800. On the downside, it is recommended to trail reversal to the 10-day EMA of 5618.

    Barring the marginal loss of 0.37% in the Realty index, all other sectoral indices ended the day with gains. The top gaining sectors of the day were Auto (-1.89%), FMCG (+1.42%) and Metals (+1.38%). A mixed performance was seen in the broader market indices where the Mid-cap index gained 1.14% and the Small-cap index gained 0.85%.

    Bullish Setups: CNXBANK, GAIL, TPWR, CIPLA, BATA, PF, YES
    Bearish Setups: DRRD, BHARTI, COAL, HEXW

NSE, Bulk deals, 01-Oct-2012

DateSymbolSecurity NameClient NameBuy / SellQuantity TradedTrade Price /
Wght. Avg.
Price
Remarks
01-Oct-2012AMARAmar Remedies LimitedASHWIN STOCKS AND INVESTMENT PRIVATE LIMITEDBUY88,25336.64-
01-Oct-2012AMARAmar Remedies LimitedASHWIN STOCKS AND INVESTMENT PRIVATE LIMITEDSELL1,34,27435.58-
01-Oct-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.BUY4,11,79863.72-
01-Oct-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdCROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.SELL4,11,79863.68-
01-Oct-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdDINESH MUNJAL(HUF)BUY1,39,45164.04-
01-Oct-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdDINESH MUNJAL(HUF)SELL1,39,45164.02-
01-Oct-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdINDUS PORTFOLIO (P) LTDBUY1,87,75864.12-
01-Oct-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdINDUS PORTFOLIO (P) LTDSELL1,87,75864.17-
01-Oct-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdMBL & COMPANY LTD.BUY81,61263.87-
01-Oct-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdMBL & COMPANY LTD.SELL81,61263.90-
01-Oct-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdSHREE NAMAN SECURITIES & FINANCE PVT. LTDBUY1,40,04064.29-
01-Oct-2012ARSSINFRAARSS Infra Proj. LtdSHREE NAMAN SECURITIES & FINANCE PVT. LTDSELL1,49,09364.11-
01-Oct-2012EVEREADYEveready Industries IndiaHSBC GLOBAL INVESTMENT A/C INDIAN EQUITY FUNDSELL5,00,00020.62-
01-Oct-2012EVEREADYEveready Industries IndiaSHARAD SHAH.BUY5,00,00020.86-
01-Oct-2012TECHMTech Mahindra LimitedINVESTA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC- PRINCIPAL INTERNATIONALBUY7,96,8191022.41-
01-Oct-2012TULIPTulip Telecom LimitedECL FINANCE LIMITEDSELL13,63,79446.34-
01-Oct-2012TULIPTulip Telecom LimitedJ P M S L A/c Copthall Mauritius Investment LtdBUY8,09,81245.90-
01-Oct-2012TULIPTulip Telecom LimitedRELIGARE FINVEST LTDSELL8,77,23844.72-

Zinc hovers around strong support level ::Business Line


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Oct 2: Mutual Fund Talk :: Business Line


I am 30. I started three SIPs last year, when my daughter was born. I invest Rs 1,000 in each of the following funds every month: Reliance Pharma, Reliance Regular Savings and Reliance Banking.
I can take high risks and have an investment horizon of 25 years. I am saving for my daughter’s marriage and higher education. Is my portfolio the right way of going about achieving my goals or are there any changes that need to be made?
I can invest another Rs 3,000, which I wish to park in Reliance Liquid fund, but am waiting for a significant market correction.
Vijayalakshmi M V

UTI Banking Fund: Hold ::Business Line


Should you go shopping for retail stocks now? ::Business Line