Rupee hit by oil dollar demand, ends at 51.58; more falls seen (ET)

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The rupee fell on Thursday, erasing earlier gains, weighed by dollar demand from local oil refiners and on continued concerns over foreign portfolio flows. However, expectations for a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India next week after much weaker-than-expected industrial output data bolstered stock markets, providing some support for the rupee, traders said. Still, traders expect the rupee to remain under pressure, as a widening current account deficit and doubts about foreign capital flows keep investors on edge. A Reuters poll out on Thursday showed investors were the most pessimistic on the rupee among Asia's emerging market currencies for a third consecutive month. "Market is nervous about continuation of FII flows especially after the budget, since flows are needed to bridge the huge current account gap. And this fear is keeping rupee under pressure," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, vice-president at Mecklai Financials. The rupee ended at 51.5800/5850 to the dollar compared with Wednesday's close of 51.42/43. It had risen as high as 51.2950 in early trades most likely on dollar sales by some foreign banks, dealers said. The rupee remains in a downtrend, with next support seen at the 51.64 low on Wednesday and support after that seen at 52.13, the 61.8 percent retracement from the Dec. 15 low to the Feb. 6 high. Not all analysts are pessimistic on the rupee. Nomura said it retains its long call on the rupee, eyeing a break of 50 over the next three months, though recommending options trades to avoid the expected volatility. Nomura's strategists attributed their more optimistic view to expectations for rate cuts and an improved economic environment in India. The one-month offshore non-deliverable forward contracts were at 51.99. In the currency futures market, the most-traded near-month dollar-rupee contracts on the National Stock Exchange, the MCX-SX and on the United Stock Exchange all ended around 51.7, on a total volume of $3.3 billion.

Fertiliser - Volumes surge on anticipation of robust kharif demand; : Edelweiss PDF Link

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Non-urea fertiliser sales volume surged in Q4FY12 on account of restocking by  distributors ahead of the kharif season, after weak offtake during Q3FY12 fueled by poor rainfall during rabi season. Owing to the robust sales volume growth, most domestic fertiliser companies are expected to post strong revenue and profitability growth for Q4FY12 YoY. While Q1FY13 is likely to register subdued sales volume vis-à-vis Q4FY12, the outlook for FY13 is positive on account of improved availability of phosphoric acid and lower raw material prices. In the domestic fertiliser space, we remain positive on Coromandel International (Coromandel).

Strong revival in non-urea volume in February-March

While the poor post-monsoon rainfall resulted in non-urea sales volume plunging ~18% YoY during December 2011-January 2012, demand surged in February on better rainfall and restocking of distribution network for the upcoming kharif season resulted in 107% YoY sales surge during February-March. On the other hand, urea sales volume declined 1.4% YoY. The strong non-urea fertiliser sales during the quarter pacify concerns of likely inventory losses in Q1FY13 (owing to lower NBS subsidy in FY13 vis-à-vis FY12) for fertiliser companies to a great extent. 

Outlook: Positive; upcoming monsoon season is key

Owing to the steep growth in fertiliser sales volume, we expect complex fertiliser companies like Coromandel, Zuari Industries (Zuari) and GSFC to post strong growth in revenue and profitability for Q4FY12 YoY. For Coromandel and Zuari, on account of the Q4FY12 sales volume being higher than our expectation, there is a likelihood of Q4FY12 numbers beating our estimates (Table 6) by 15-20%. While we expect subdued profitability from these companies during Q1FY13, on back of lower inventories being carried into FY13 and some losses on these inventories owing to lower subsidy from government in FY13 vis-à-vis FY12, the outlook for FY13 is positive. This is on account of the improved availability of raw materials like phosphoric acid and lowering of raw material costs in FY13 vis-à-vis FY12. While prospects for the fertiliser sector look bright, the key will be good monsoon in the upcoming kharif season.

In our coverage universe, we have ‘BUY’ on Coromandel and Zuari and ‘HOLD’ on Chambal. Based on DCF, we have a fair value target of INR395 for Coromandel (CMP: INR285), INR238 for Zuari (CMP: INR163) and INR84 for Chambal (CMP: INR82).

Fertiliser - Volumes surge on anticipation of robust kharif demand; sector update

Regards,

IIP - In weak form : Edelweiss PDF Link

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IIP growth in February at ~4.1% YoY was lower than the expected ~7.0% while January’s number was revised down drastically to ~1.1% from 6.8% earlier, predominantly on account of consumer non-durables. Given the volatility and influence of base effect in IIP, we use the more stable MoM 3MMA seasonally adjusted data to assess the activity trend. On this basis, we infer that though industrial activity has emerged from an extremely weak phase, recovery is weak and fragile. Moreover, pace of expansion in February has dipped further. Going forward, for a turnaround in business cycle, policy action needs to pick up to boost business confidence besides rate cuts, which we expect to commence with a 25bps cut in April.

Industrial growth drops to 'disappointing' 4.1%, industry asks RBI to cut rates: ET

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Pulled down by poor performance of manufacturing and consumer goods, industrial growth slipped to 4.1 per cent in February prompting government to state that the "disappointing" numbers will have bearing on the Reserve Bank when it takes a call on the interest rates on April 17.

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 6.7 per cent in February 2011.

Rising interest rates and poor domestic demand aggravated by global uncertainties hit the industrial investment, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee said.




What is worse, the 6.8 per cent industrial expansion in January has been drastically revised to 1.14 per cent with chief statistician TCA Anant admitting "slippages" in data collection.

Prime Minister's economic advisory council (PMEAC) chairman C Rangarajan said the government is setting up a committee to tighten sources of data gathering.

As per the IIP data released today, the growth in factory output for the cumulative April-February 2011-12 period more than halved to 3.5 per cent from 8.1 per cent from a year ago. "These (IIP) figures will have bearing on monetary policy announcement scheduled for next week. The government along with RBI will take required steps to revive activity in the economy," Mukherjee said.

Key segments like manufacturing, consumer goods, consumer durables and intermediate items, are among the worst hit. In fact, consumer durables and intermediate goods slipped into negative zones.

Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia also described the IIP figures as "very very disappointing".

Industry said decline in industrial growth is a "cause for concern" and urgent steps are needed to bring reforms back to the forefront. Industry asks RBI to cut rates

Expressing concerns over slow industrial production growth, industry today asked the Reserve Bank to cut rates in its policy review next month to boost investments and bring the growth back on track.

"Overall, industrial growth remains weak in 2011-12 and it is important to use all policy levers to encourage growth and investment. It is time that RBI focuses on getting growth back by sharply reducing interest rates," CII said.

Sharing similar views, Assocham said RBI must take this (sluggish IIP growth) into consideration, while announcing the credit policy on April 17.

Industry has been blaming the slowdown in growth to the high interest rate regime that has made borrowings costly and curbed consumer spending.

Industrial output growth slowed to 4.1 per cent in February this year, mainly due to poor performance of manufacturing sector and consumer goods segments.

"The 4.1 per cent growth in industrial output is not good enough. This may not push the cumulative growth of the sector beyond 3.5 per cent in the 2011-12 fiscal," Assocham Secretary General D S Rawat said. Output of the manufacturing sector, which constitutes over 75 per cent of the IIP, rose by just 4 per cent in February compared to 7.5 per cent in the same period last year.

"The slow growth of the manufacturing sector has got wider implications and needs to be the addressed on a priority basis," Rawat said.

Besides, the IIP growth has been revised downwards to 1.14 per cent in January from the provisional estimates of 6.8 per cent.

"The error reported in the January number has sharply pulled down the growth rate for the year till now," Rawat said.

During the April-February period of 2011-12, the IIP growth is 3.5 per cent, as against 8.1 per cent in same period in 2010-11.

Technical Report -12.04.2012- Angel Broking - PDF link

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Technical Report

Total AUM of MF Industry Declines by 13% in March '12

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Total Assets Under Management (AUM) of the mutual fund (MF) industry declined by 13% (by Rs 88021 crore) to Rs 5.87 lakh crore in March 2012, the lowest AUM since June 2009. The month-on-month decline in AUM was the worst in 12 months. Except for Gold Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) whose AUM increased marginally by 0.9%, rest of the categories witnessed fall in AUM.

The decline in assets of the industry was basically due to huge outflows of Rs 76537 crore and Rs 7654 crore from Liquid and Income Funds respectively. Net outflow from the industry stood at Rs 83765 crore in March 2012, which was worst than the net inflow of Rs 1271 crore in February 2012.

AUM of equity funds declined around 2% (by Rs 3646 crore) to Rs 1.82 lakh crore due to mark-to-market losses. The equity market represented by the benchmark Nifty and Sensex fell by 1.7% and 2% respectively in March after recording gains in the previous two months. The category witnessed marginal net inflows of Rs 71 crore in March which was primarily due to inflows into Equity Linked Savings Scheme (ELSS) category.

Income funds saw net outflows for the fifth consecutive month and it was Rs 7654 crore in March. Other Exchange Traded Funds witnessed eight consecutive months of net outflows. Its net outflows stood at Rs 31 crore in March.

Gold ETF witnessed the highest net inflows in last four months. It stood at Rs 231 crore in March.

The industry registered net outflows for the second consecutive fiscal, it stood at Rs 22023 crore for the fiscal ending March 2012, as against net outflow of Rs 49406 crore for the fiscal ending March 2011.

Funds mobilized from 157 newly launched schemes in March stood at Rs 36361 crore, out of which Rs 36254 crore came from 153 close ended income funds. The number of Fixed Maturity Plans (FMPs) launched during March was higher than other months during the fiscal as investors look to invest into this product to benefit from indexation. Axis Income Fund an open ended income fund mobilized Rs 39 crore. Canara Robeco Gold Exchange Traded Fund and Motilal Oswal MOSt Shares Gold ETF (open ended Gold ETF) mobilized Rs 42 crore. SBI Tax Advantage Fund - Series II, a close ended ELSS mobilized Rs 26 crore.

Derivatives Report -12.04.2012- Angel Broking - PDF link

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Derivatives Report

Market Summary -12.04.2012- Angel Broking - PDF link

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Market Summary

Market Outlook -12.04.2012- Angel Broking - PDF link

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Market Outlook

Q4FY2012 Oil & Gas earnings preview : Sharekhan Special PDF link

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Q4FY2012 Oil & Gas earnings preview   Key points Brent crude oil's price remains strong; was at $120/bbl in Q4FY2012: During Q4FY2012 the price of Brent crude oil hovered in the range of $110-125 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil in Q4FY2012 was $120, which is over 9% higher compared with the price in the previous quarter (Q3FY2012). The crude oil prices have surged largely on account of the geo-political issue in Iran. On a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis, the average price of crude oil in Q4FY2012 was higher by around 10%. Hence, the realisation of the end-products of exploration and production (E&P) should replicate the trend. However, the dollar corrected marginally in Q4FY2012 to Rs49.8 as compared with Rs51.3 in Q3FY2012. On account of strong crude oil prices, we expect E&P companies to benefit in terms of better realisation.

Categories Turnover (BSE) (Rs. crore) Clients NRI Proprietary Trade Data

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Categories Turnover (BSE)

(Rs. crore)
	Clients			NRI			Proprietary
Trade Date	Buy	Sales	Net	Buy	Sales	Net	Buy	Sales	Net
12/4/12	1,529.32	1,529.71	-0.40	1.02	0.60	0.43	529.49	529.85	-0.36
11/4/12	1,583.42	1,561.74	21.68	0.79	0.51	0.28	566.33	560.13	6.20
10/4/12	1,483.80	1,428.12	55.68	0.47	0.56	-0.09	579.51	575.17	4.34
Apr , 12	10,044.75	9,959.80	84.95	11.72	3.02	8.70	3,530.63	3,549.63	-19.00
Since 1/1/12	128,918.54	130,685.96	-1,767.41	87.82	85.18	2.64	46,007.59	44,789.13	1,218.46

Disclaimer: DII and FII turnover is consolidated information of BSE and NSE. BSE data is compiled on the basis of marking of 'client type' while executing orders on BOLT-TWS in equity segment. NSE Data has been compiled on the basis of trading codes entered by the trading members at the time of order entry and corresponding client category classification provided by the trading members as part of unique client code details upload. NRI - Non Resident Indians FII - Foreign Institutional Investors DII -Domestic Institutional Investors (Includes Bank, DFIs, Insurance, New Pension Scheme and MF).

DII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market

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DII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market Segment.

DII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market Segment(In Rs.Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sale Value Net Value DII 12/4/12 1,087.74 850.34 237.40

DII trading data across BSE and NSE collated on the basis of trades executed today by Banks, DFIs,Insurance and MFs on BSE and NSE. This trade data is provisional and subject to change, inter-alia, on account of custodial confirmation process, modifications etc.

FII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market

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FII trading activity on BSE and NSE on Capital Market Segment

FII trading activity on BSE and NSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sale Value	Net Value
FII	12/4/12	2,030.33	1,894.35	135.98
Disclaimer: FII trading data across BSE and NSE collated on the basis of trades executed today by FIIs on BSE and NSE. This trade data is provisional and subject to change, inter-alia, on account of custodial confirmation process, modifications etc.

BSE, Bulk deals, 12/4/2012

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Deal Date	Scrip Code	Company	Client Name	Deal Type *	Quantity	Price **
12/4/2012	530027	Aadi Inds	KFIC INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PRIVATE LIMITED	S	53500	5.00
12/4/2012	524448	Ahlcon Par	SEWASTUTI FINANCE P.LTD	B	46945	421.26
12/4/2012	524448	Ahlcon Par	KAILASH RELAN	S	51118	421.29
12/4/2012	531194	Brahmaputra Infra	M L SINGHI AND ASSOCIATES PRIVATE LIMITED	S	50000	48.16
12/4/2012	532871	CELESTIAL	MONA HIREN SEJPAL	B	145709	25.73
12/4/2012	532871	CELESTIAL	SUNIL AGRAWAL	S	141800	25.73
12/4/2012	531270	Dazzel Conf	PARMAR SURESHBHAI P	B	740000	2.86
12/4/2012	531270	Dazzel Conf	VORA FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	B	1459817	2.86

DON'T file your TAX return online before reading this

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Filing income tax returns in a hurry without adequate information about the procedure could add to your woes.

It is that time of the year when one sits with a calculator or Excel sheets to calculate their earnings or various sources of income procured through the year. The sheer complexity of the procedure makes one run to a chartered accountant (CA) as everyone dreads calculations going haywire. If all this was not enough, then the huge lines at the Income Tax office where one files returns is another reason to keep away from filing income tax returns.

However, two years ago, the Income Tax department of India did a rescue act and made the whole procedure online. This was a huge relief to the taxpaying community as you could file your returns within the confines of your home, office. In fact, it could be done from any part of the country. All you need is an Internet connection. Yes, it's that simple!

However, here are a few things you should know before jumping on the online tax filing bandwagon.

NSE, Bulk deals, 12-Apr-2012

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Date	Symbol	Security Name	Client Name	Buy / Sell	Quantity Traded	Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price	Remarks
12-Apr-2012	ASSAMCO	Assam Company India Ltd	ANTIQUE HOLDING PVT LTD	BUY	115,11,952	7.50	-
12-Apr-2012	ASSAMCO	Assam Company India Ltd	CRESTA FUND LTD	SELL	115,11,952	7.50	-
12-Apr-2012	CELESTIAL	Celestial Biolabs Limited	SEJPAL MONA HIREN	BUY	1,27,822	25.83	-
12-Apr-2012	CELESTIAL	Celestial Biolabs Limited	SUNIL AGRAWAL	BUY	1,000	25.96	-
12-Apr-2012	CELESTIAL	Celestial Biolabs Limited	SUNIL AGRAWAL	SELL	1,26,000	25.82	-
12-Apr-2012	DENSO	Denso India Ltd	PATEL PANKAJ	SELL	1,00,000	53.50	-
12-Apr-2012	INVENTURE	Inventure Gro & Sec Ltd	ASHROJ CREDIT INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED	BUY	77,155	316.07	-
12-Apr-2012	INVENTURE	Inventure Gro & Sec Ltd	ASHROJ CREDIT INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED	SELL	1,11,937	305.17	-
12-Apr-2012	IVRCLINFRA	IVRCL Limited	AMRAPALI INDUSTRIES LTD.	BUY	18,80,000	72.27	-

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 12-Apr-2012

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 12-Apr-2012
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	47598	1236.98	40322	1044.32	373396	9736.54	192.66
INDEX OPTIONS	506644	13315.94	495596	13038.21	1328839	35059.18	277.73
STOCK FUTURES	38255	1102.29	38450	1088.99	812182	22880.40	13.31
STOCK OPTIONS	25142	734.46	27767	816.39	35416	983.19	-81.93
						Total	401.76

 

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