1QFY13 Results: PTC India performance above estimate
Tolling income boost PAT
1QFY13 performance below estimates but tolling income boost PAT: During 1QFY13
adjusted PAT stood at INR229m. However, the reported numbers include
contribution from tolling projects, not factored by us in standalone accounts. Tolling
project PBT stood at INR125m and thus adjusted PAT excluding tolling PAT
(~INR88m), stood at INR141m, vs our estimate of INR225m. This was partially led
by lower EBITDA, lower other income at INR26m vs our estimate of INR45m.
Trading margin lower, tolling margins healthy and lower coal cost could further
aid tolling margins: Lower core PAT was led by lower trading margin at Paisa4.37/
unit (v/s est Paisa5.7). However EBITDA margin for tolling business was healthy at
INR1/unit where-in fixed cost for the project stood at INR1.6/unit and fuel cost
stood at INR3.35/unit. Revenues under tolling arrangement was INR6/unit.
Management however suggested that the higher fuel cost was owing to high cost
inventory usage, lined up on the basis of earlier expectation of project
commisisoning by 4QFY12. Going forward, the lower coal cost would be a key
delta for the tolling proejct profitabiilty.
TN dues realised partly, hopeful of full receipt before 3QFY13; discussion with
UPDISCOMs on: During the quarter, PTC received INR1b from Tamil Nadu (TN) and
another tranche of INR750m from TN in July/Aug and thus outstanding from TN
stood lower at INR4.8b v/s INR7b earlier. Managment is hopeful of receiving
balance dues from TN by 3QFY13. It is also purusing with UP discoms for dues
recovery; improved visibility on receivables would be a key positive for the stock,
in our view.
Maintain Buy: We expect PTC to report consolidated net profit of INR2.2b in FY13E
(up 9% YoY) and INR2.8b in FY14E (up 26% YoY). Stock trades at a consolidated PER
of 6x on FY14E basis. Buy with revised STOP based TP of INR73/sh, excluding value
of outstanding receivable of INR8b or INR27/sh.
No comments:
Post a Comment