05 July 2012

Oil and Gas - Crude nosedives on demand-supply imbalance; sector update :Edelweiss PDF link


Brent corrected a sharp 13% in June, averaging USD97/bbl, on worsening of the EU funding situation and weak demand. The INR also depreciated 3.0% against USD. Indian complex GRMs and Singapore GRMs declined USD2.4/bbl and USD1.5/bbl, respectively, due to fall in gasoline and naphtha cracks. Higher fuel oil cracks led to reduction in complex-simple spreads. LPG under-recoveries eased 23.0% MoM to INR277/cylinder due to lower LPG prices in May. Petrol, diesel and kerosene under-recoveries averaged INR(1.4)/ltr, INR10.0/ltr and INR29.8/ltr, respectively. Top Picks: Large Cap—BPCL, ONGC and RIL; Mid Cap—IGL and PLNG.

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Some major company events during the month
·       Niko cut gross 1P reserves in KG-D6 to 1.9 tcf.
·       IGL won the case in Delhi High Court against PNGRB order, regulating its network tariff and compression charges.
·       Cairn Energy sold its 3.5% (or 66.8mn shares) stake in Cairn India. The selling price was ~INR307/share.
·       OMCs reduced prices of petrol by INR2.46 (excluding taxes) on June 28.
·       Production from RIL’s KG-D6 fell to ~31 mmscmd.

Regards,

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