In its second stage forecast of South West monsoon (June to September), the IndianMeteorological Department (IMD) has retained its normal forecast, although quantitatively, rainfall forecast has been revised down to 96% of Long Period Average (LPA) from 99% in April. As per IMD, while the risk of El Nino conditions in later part of monsoon still exists, it is lower compared to April. Further, rainfall is likely to be well-distributed both spatially and temporally. In particular, Central India and South Peninsula, where rain dependency is relatively high, are likely to receive normal or close to normal rainfall; this augurs well for oilseeds and pulses production.
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Meanwhile, so far in the season (June 01-21), rainfall has been below average (76% of LPA), although performance in the third week has improved. It is important that monsoon gathers pace in the coming days as sowing season has begun.
Regards,
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