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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/dmb/MorningInsight24052012.pdf
BHEL
PRICE: RS.209 RECOMMENDATION: ACCUMULATE
TARGET PRICE: RS.236 FY13E P/E: 8.2X
BHEL had already reported provisional numbers in April 2012. The audited
numbers for Q4 FY12 are higher than the provisional numbers
aided by better margins and increased other income.
The management estimates 24000-25000 MW of orders to be awarded in
FY13. Out of which, BHEL expects to win orders 14000-15000 MW consisting
of NTPC orders from the bulk tender and couple of state and private
utility orders. The management indicated that ~ 7000-8000 MW of order
pipeline are spillover projects that were scheduled to be awarded in the
previous year.
Sector Outlook - Industry heading towards a prolonged period of overcapacity.
Consequently, we forecast revenues to decline by 3% in FY13 to
Rs 490 bn. Revenue outlook beyond FY13 also appears to be subdued due
to likely decline in order backlog.
At the current price, BHEL is trading at a 8.2x FY13 earnings. Based on
FY13E, the stock is trading at 4.5x EV/EBITDA multiple.
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/dmb/MorningInsight24052012.pdf
BHEL
PRICE: RS.209 RECOMMENDATION: ACCUMULATE
TARGET PRICE: RS.236 FY13E P/E: 8.2X
BHEL had already reported provisional numbers in April 2012. The audited
numbers for Q4 FY12 are higher than the provisional numbers
aided by better margins and increased other income.
The management estimates 24000-25000 MW of orders to be awarded in
FY13. Out of which, BHEL expects to win orders 14000-15000 MW consisting
of NTPC orders from the bulk tender and couple of state and private
utility orders. The management indicated that ~ 7000-8000 MW of order
pipeline are spillover projects that were scheduled to be awarded in the
previous year.
Sector Outlook - Industry heading towards a prolonged period of overcapacity.
Consequently, we forecast revenues to decline by 3% in FY13 to
Rs 490 bn. Revenue outlook beyond FY13 also appears to be subdued due
to likely decline in order backlog.
At the current price, BHEL is trading at a 8.2x FY13 earnings. Based on
FY13E, the stock is trading at 4.5x EV/EBITDA multiple.
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