10 April 2012

10 April: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) ::Edelweiss

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
Following the long holiday last week the Indices began on a nervous note with a large gap down opening for Nifty. The index traded lower throughout the day and ended near the lowest point with a loss of 1.66% at 5231. The drop however was on low volumes and an adverse A/D ratio of 1:2. Even the volatility spiked with the India VIX climbing 5.2% indicating increasing risk in the markets. The supports of 5300 and 5260 have been breached lower thus and momentum oscillators too have rolled bearish/neutal from bullish setups suggesting downside risk ahead for the indices. Nifty has retraced 61.8% of two week rally off the low of 5136 to 5378 at 5228, and upon further weakness lower, it is likely to dive down to the 200 DMA at 5146 and possible test the lower boundary of a ‘falling wedge’ pattern in formation at 5115. On the upside, rallies are expected to face stiff resistance at 5285/5300. Overall, the market seems to have got into consolidation mode once again with a range of 5100 to 5300 on low volumes.
Barring the marginal gain in the Healthcare index (+0.32%), all other sectoral indices ended the day in the red. The biggest loser of the day were Metals (-3.44%), Cap Goods (-3.16%) and Power (-2.49%) indices. The broader markets too witnessed a negative trend with the Mid-cap index falling 1.35% and the Small-cap index losing 0.65%.

 Bullish Setups: ADE, RIL, LT, RBXY
Bearish Setups: BHEL, ACC, MSIL, GAIL

Regards,

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