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After Congress’ poor performance in the recent state elections, the
forthcoming presidential election is likely to be the next battleground for
the ruling party. Our Electoral College calculations suggest that on its own
the party will not be able to garner more than 30% votes, not enough to
push its candidate successfully. Ergo, India’s grand old ruling party will
have to either agree to a consensus candidate, in which case it loses
influence during political crisis, or it risks losing the presidential election
altogether, a big loss of face for the embattled party. In any case, the
election is likely to unleash heightened political uncertainty, with the
attendant possibility of mid-term polls.
Presidential elections: Congress on shaky ground
Presidential elections in India are due in June/July 2012. Post the recent drubbing in
State Assembly polls, Congress’ sphere of influence is waning and the complex
concoction of Electoral College calculations (see appendix) implies that India’s grand old
party will find it hard to push its candidate. Ergo, the party may have to align with a
consensus candidate supported by regional parties or run the risk of losing the
Presidential election by putting up its own candidate.
Electoral College: Congress’ arithmetic of woes
The President is elected by an Electoral College consisting of 4,896 electorates (4,120
MLAs and 776 MPs of both Houses), wherein each MP and MLA is assigned a certain
value for votes (see appendix for methodology). While each MP vote is accorded a fixed
value, value of MLA’s vote depends on the population of the respective state. Thus,
while the value of MLA’s vote from Uttar Pradesh is 208, that of a Mizoram MLA is 8.
For the Congress to smoothly push through its own candidate, the party needs to be
strongly positioned in the Parliament as well as state assemblies as both carry equal
influence. As per our calculations, the Congress commands just ~35% of total value of
MP votes in the Parliament (Lok Sabha + Rajya Sabha, where its position is relatively
strong). Moreover, in top 10 states, which contribute ~76% of aggregate MLA vote
value, the party is in a non-majority position in eight, which means that its MLA vote
share in top 10 states is just ~22.0%. In other words, the combined value of its votes
(Parliament + top 10 states) will be no more than 30% of the total value of votes.
Clearly, the ruling party is in no position to push its candidate unilaterally.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
After Congress’ poor performance in the recent state elections, the
forthcoming presidential election is likely to be the next battleground for
the ruling party. Our Electoral College calculations suggest that on its own
the party will not be able to garner more than 30% votes, not enough to
push its candidate successfully. Ergo, India’s grand old ruling party will
have to either agree to a consensus candidate, in which case it loses
influence during political crisis, or it risks losing the presidential election
altogether, a big loss of face for the embattled party. In any case, the
election is likely to unleash heightened political uncertainty, with the
attendant possibility of mid-term polls.
Presidential elections: Congress on shaky ground
Presidential elections in India are due in June/July 2012. Post the recent drubbing in
State Assembly polls, Congress’ sphere of influence is waning and the complex
concoction of Electoral College calculations (see appendix) implies that India’s grand old
party will find it hard to push its candidate. Ergo, the party may have to align with a
consensus candidate supported by regional parties or run the risk of losing the
Presidential election by putting up its own candidate.
Electoral College: Congress’ arithmetic of woes
The President is elected by an Electoral College consisting of 4,896 electorates (4,120
MLAs and 776 MPs of both Houses), wherein each MP and MLA is assigned a certain
value for votes (see appendix for methodology). While each MP vote is accorded a fixed
value, value of MLA’s vote depends on the population of the respective state. Thus,
while the value of MLA’s vote from Uttar Pradesh is 208, that of a Mizoram MLA is 8.
For the Congress to smoothly push through its own candidate, the party needs to be
strongly positioned in the Parliament as well as state assemblies as both carry equal
influence. As per our calculations, the Congress commands just ~35% of total value of
MP votes in the Parliament (Lok Sabha + Rajya Sabha, where its position is relatively
strong). Moreover, in top 10 states, which contribute ~76% of aggregate MLA vote
value, the party is in a non-majority position in eight, which means that its MLA vote
share in top 10 states is just ~22.0%. In other words, the combined value of its votes
(Parliament + top 10 states) will be no more than 30% of the total value of votes.
Clearly, the ruling party is in no position to push its candidate unilaterally.
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