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In spite of the plush ad campaign, things are looking tougher for IPL 5 given the ongoing slowdown in the ad spends
Due to lower ratings in IPL 4, the previous season, advertisers have been demanding a cut in ad rates
According to our sensitivity analysis, cutting ad rates can lead to a maximum revenue drop of ~INR2.7bn for SET Max
Our interactions with consumer companies point out that except Dabur, almost all consumer majors will remain restrained in their ad spends in H1FY13
Even though ZEE’s sports losses remain a concern (spike in Q4FY12 loss may lead to sports loss of INR1.3-1.4bn in FY12), we are positive on ZEE from a long term perspective
With sports broadcasters already bleeding in India, the loss of IPL ratings will further question the sustainability of sports broadcasting genre in India
Reduced advertising during the IPL may divert ad spends towards GECs and news channels
Top Picks: Hathway Cable & Datacom, Dish TV, ZEE
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