29 March 2012

Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) :29 March :: Edelweiss

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
    Nifty reversed the gains of the previous day as it slipped below the 5200 mark and managed a close of 0.92% lower. The drop was supported by a weak market breadth (A/D ratio of 1:3), an average turnover and a marginal drop in volatility. The index consolidated in a tight range of 36 points in the first half, only to see a sharp drop in the second half of the session breaching below the absolute near-term support range of 5200-5170. However some final hour buying helped the index close above the crucial 15-month falling trend line as well as the 200 DMA. Momentum oscillator setups are bearish and even over sold (Stochastic Oscillator) on the daily chart, whereas the hourly oscillator MACD continues to trade with a buy crossover indicating some choppy moves are likely. The March series derivatives expiry is likely to bring along volatility in today’s session as we expect the index to test the 200 DMA at 5152 for once and exhibit a recovery back above 5200. A substantial move below 5152 will be a cause for concern on the intermediate outlook and could result in the Nifty slipping towards 5080.
    Barring the marginal strength in the defensive FMCG (+0.29%) and Healthcare (+0.22%) indices, all other sectoral indices ended the day in the red. Among the top losers of the day were Banking (-1.73%), Realty (-1.57%) and Oil & Gas (-1.23%) indexes. The broader markets traded in sync with frontline index as the Mid-cap and Small-cap indices lost -0.87% and -1.08% respectively.
    Bullish Setups: LPC, HUVR, ITC, BHARTI, JPA
    Bearish Setups: MSIL, HNDL, JUBI, TTAN

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