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Teva reported a strong set of numbers, in‐line with Street estimates, led by
acquisition of Cephalon and Taiyo (Japan), robust growth in branded
products and ROW markets. Teva has guided 20% revenue growth over
CY12 with incremental USD30bn value opportunities in the US, higher
generic penetration in Europe and stable growth in branded products.
Solid performance led by branded products, acquisitions
Teva numbers were in line with the Street guidance; sales at USD5.67bn (up 28.5%), EBIT
at USD1.7bn (up 35%) and EPS at USD1.59 (up 27%). US grew 32% led by the acquisition of
Cephalon while generics growth slipped 5% due to lower launches and price erosion. Teva
US generics benefited from the launch of Zyprexa and royalty from Ranbaxy on Lipitor.
ROW generics grew 81% while branded products expanded 68% YoY.
Irvine manufacturing to be fully functional by H2CY12
Manufacturing issues at the Irvine facility might get resolved soon and the facility would
be fully functional by H2CY12, as per management. This facility supplies critical sterile
products in the US which are currently facing drug shortages.
US pipeline: USD30bn value opportunities in CY12
Teva has guided for USD650mn incremental sales from the US in CY12 given the 40
product launches including Lexapro, Actos, Eloxatin, Avalide, Plavix, Seroquel, Provigil and
Singulair. The key product launch will be Lexapro (escitalopram).
• Expect generic Copaxone launch only in CY15
Teva expects generic entry in Copaxone (USD2.5bn) only by CY15. This could be a
potential negative for Natco since the Street has been building in a 50% probability of
the launch in FY13.
• Teva not building in generic Tricor launch in CY12; positive for Lupin
Teva has highlighted that despite holding a license from the innovator, it does not
expect Tricor (USD1.4bn) launch in CY12. We believe this could be positive for Lupin
as it has date certain agreement with Abbott and expects to launch it in 2HCY12.
• Combivir: Teva had launched Combivir (USD200mn) in Dec‐end and expects Lupin to
launch this product after six months exclusivity with limited competition.
• Relaunch of generic Eloxatin to be a big opportunity
Teva and Hospira have highlighted relaunch of generic Eloxatin (USD1bn opportunity)
as a large opportunity with 5‐6 players. Sun Pharma is likely to launch this product in
August’12 and could be a key revenue generator in FY13E.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Teva reported a strong set of numbers, in‐line with Street estimates, led by
acquisition of Cephalon and Taiyo (Japan), robust growth in branded
products and ROW markets. Teva has guided 20% revenue growth over
CY12 with incremental USD30bn value opportunities in the US, higher
generic penetration in Europe and stable growth in branded products.
Solid performance led by branded products, acquisitions
Teva numbers were in line with the Street guidance; sales at USD5.67bn (up 28.5%), EBIT
at USD1.7bn (up 35%) and EPS at USD1.59 (up 27%). US grew 32% led by the acquisition of
Cephalon while generics growth slipped 5% due to lower launches and price erosion. Teva
US generics benefited from the launch of Zyprexa and royalty from Ranbaxy on Lipitor.
ROW generics grew 81% while branded products expanded 68% YoY.
Irvine manufacturing to be fully functional by H2CY12
Manufacturing issues at the Irvine facility might get resolved soon and the facility would
be fully functional by H2CY12, as per management. This facility supplies critical sterile
products in the US which are currently facing drug shortages.
US pipeline: USD30bn value opportunities in CY12
Teva has guided for USD650mn incremental sales from the US in CY12 given the 40
product launches including Lexapro, Actos, Eloxatin, Avalide, Plavix, Seroquel, Provigil and
Singulair. The key product launch will be Lexapro (escitalopram).
• Expect generic Copaxone launch only in CY15
Teva expects generic entry in Copaxone (USD2.5bn) only by CY15. This could be a
potential negative for Natco since the Street has been building in a 50% probability of
the launch in FY13.
• Teva not building in generic Tricor launch in CY12; positive for Lupin
Teva has highlighted that despite holding a license from the innovator, it does not
expect Tricor (USD1.4bn) launch in CY12. We believe this could be positive for Lupin
as it has date certain agreement with Abbott and expects to launch it in 2HCY12.
• Combivir: Teva had launched Combivir (USD200mn) in Dec‐end and expects Lupin to
launch this product after six months exclusivity with limited competition.
• Relaunch of generic Eloxatin to be a big opportunity
Teva and Hospira have highlighted relaunch of generic Eloxatin (USD1bn opportunity)
as a large opportunity with 5‐6 players. Sun Pharma is likely to launch this product in
August’12 and could be a key revenue generator in FY13E.
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