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Telecom
India
Data points from Vodafone/Uninor Dec 2011 quarter earnings reports. Key data
points from Vodafone and Uninor’s 3QFY12 earnings reports are: (1) healthy volume
growth of 4.3% qoq for Vodafone and 21% qoq for Uninor (low base), (2) RPM inched
up about 1% qoq for Vodafone and declined 6% qoq for Uninor, (3) increased churn
for the industry, as reflected in Vodafone’s report (in line with that reported for Bharti
and Idea) and (4) slow 3G offtake, as reflected in muted data growth across players.
Vodafone India 3QFY11: key highlights
Vodafone’s India revenue (including Indus’ contribution) grew 5.2% qoq and 20% yoy to Rs82
bn. Sequential growth for the quarter was higher than Bharti’s 4% but lower than Idea’s 8.8%.
Revenue growth was led by volume uptick and RPM improvement. Volumes increased 4.3%
qoq and RPM inched up 1% qoq. RPM change was similar to Idea’s but substantially lower than
Bharti’s 3.2% qoq. 56% of Vodafone’s subs are now on higher pricing.
ARPU increased 3% qoq to Rs173/sub/month; MOU increased 2% qoq to 394 (our estimate).
More importantly, prepaid ARPU increased 3.6% qoq, likely the first sequential increase in
prepaid ARPU in many years. Price hikes were well absorbed by Vodafone’s customer base.
Churn rates jumped to 5.8% per month from 5.3% in 2QFY12. This compares well with
Bharti’s 7.9% and Idea’s 10.4%. All the three operators reported a qoq increase in churn.
Revenue growth was driven by the voice segment (in line with Bharti and Idea), which grew
6.1% qoq. SMS revenues declined qoq and data revenues increased by a modest 1% qoq.
Vodafone indicated 31.2 mn data subs at the end of Dec 2011 versus 27.5 mn at end-2QFY12.
Uninor 3QFY11: key highlights
Revenue grew 14.1% qoq and 157% yoy to Rs7.8 bn. Revenue growth was driven by strong
volume growth of 21.4% qoq (to 27.3 bn minutes) even as RPM declined 6% qoq to
Rs0.28/min. Absolute minutes added were higher than Bharti added.
EBITDA losses declined sharply to Rs4.8 bn for the quarter against Rs6.9 bn in the previous
quarter. Cumulative EBITDA losses stand at Rs67.2 bn.
Capex for the quarter was Rs2.2 bn, taking cumulative capex to Rs50 bn.
ARPU was flat qoq at Rs99/sub/month. MOU increased 5.5% qoq to 347.
Uninor’s CY2012 capex guidance is Rs8.3 bn and EBITDA loss of Rs17 bn. EBITDA loss guidance
is close to annualized 4QCY11 EBITDA loss, implying that Uninor is not aiming at meaningful
EBITDA improvement in CY2012.
On the recent SC judgment to cancel its India licenses, Telenor indicated (1) there would be no
impact on operations, (2) it was considering legal and diplomatic options and (3) further
investments would slow until more clarity emerged.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Telecom
India
Data points from Vodafone/Uninor Dec 2011 quarter earnings reports. Key data
points from Vodafone and Uninor’s 3QFY12 earnings reports are: (1) healthy volume
growth of 4.3% qoq for Vodafone and 21% qoq for Uninor (low base), (2) RPM inched
up about 1% qoq for Vodafone and declined 6% qoq for Uninor, (3) increased churn
for the industry, as reflected in Vodafone’s report (in line with that reported for Bharti
and Idea) and (4) slow 3G offtake, as reflected in muted data growth across players.
Vodafone India 3QFY11: key highlights
Vodafone’s India revenue (including Indus’ contribution) grew 5.2% qoq and 20% yoy to Rs82
bn. Sequential growth for the quarter was higher than Bharti’s 4% but lower than Idea’s 8.8%.
Revenue growth was led by volume uptick and RPM improvement. Volumes increased 4.3%
qoq and RPM inched up 1% qoq. RPM change was similar to Idea’s but substantially lower than
Bharti’s 3.2% qoq. 56% of Vodafone’s subs are now on higher pricing.
ARPU increased 3% qoq to Rs173/sub/month; MOU increased 2% qoq to 394 (our estimate).
More importantly, prepaid ARPU increased 3.6% qoq, likely the first sequential increase in
prepaid ARPU in many years. Price hikes were well absorbed by Vodafone’s customer base.
Churn rates jumped to 5.8% per month from 5.3% in 2QFY12. This compares well with
Bharti’s 7.9% and Idea’s 10.4%. All the three operators reported a qoq increase in churn.
Revenue growth was driven by the voice segment (in line with Bharti and Idea), which grew
6.1% qoq. SMS revenues declined qoq and data revenues increased by a modest 1% qoq.
Vodafone indicated 31.2 mn data subs at the end of Dec 2011 versus 27.5 mn at end-2QFY12.
Uninor 3QFY11: key highlights
Revenue grew 14.1% qoq and 157% yoy to Rs7.8 bn. Revenue growth was driven by strong
volume growth of 21.4% qoq (to 27.3 bn minutes) even as RPM declined 6% qoq to
Rs0.28/min. Absolute minutes added were higher than Bharti added.
EBITDA losses declined sharply to Rs4.8 bn for the quarter against Rs6.9 bn in the previous
quarter. Cumulative EBITDA losses stand at Rs67.2 bn.
Capex for the quarter was Rs2.2 bn, taking cumulative capex to Rs50 bn.
ARPU was flat qoq at Rs99/sub/month. MOU increased 5.5% qoq to 347.
Uninor’s CY2012 capex guidance is Rs8.3 bn and EBITDA loss of Rs17 bn. EBITDA loss guidance
is close to annualized 4QCY11 EBITDA loss, implying that Uninor is not aiming at meaningful
EBITDA improvement in CY2012.
On the recent SC judgment to cancel its India licenses, Telenor indicated (1) there would be no
impact on operations, (2) it was considering legal and diplomatic options and (3) further
investments would slow until more clarity emerged.
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