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S u b s c r i b e r a d d i t i o n r i s e s a g a i n …
Subscriber addition rises again…
After increasing last month, subscriber additions in the telecom industry
continued to rise in January 2012. The industry added 8.4 million GSM
subscribers in January 2012 as against 7.6 million in December 2011. The
total GSM subscribers for the industry stood at 648.1 million.
While net adds for Uninor increase that for Idea decline!
While Uninor saw a rise in its subscriber addition from 2.1 million in
December 2011 to 2.5 million in January 2012, Idea witnessed a steep
decline from 2.4 million to 1.7 million. Uninor had a share in net adds of
29.5%, while Idea managed 20.7%. Idea and Uninor have been sharing
the top two spots since September. While the former has added 9.7
million subscribers since September with a share in net adds of 26.7%,
the latter has added 11.1 million with a share in net adds of 30.5%.
Bharti up; Vodafone stagnant!
While Bharti Airtel reported net adds of 1.3 million in January 2012 as
against 1.0 million in December 2011, Vodafone reported flat net adds of
0.9 million. The share in net adds increased from 12.7% to 15.4% for
Bharti and decreased from 12.0% to 10.1% for Vodafone.
Others
While net adds for BSNL increased from 0.4 million to 0.9 million in
January, Aircel’s net adds increased from 0.7 million to 0.8 million
subscribers. Other operators cumulatively saw their net adds increasing
from 0.1 million to 0.4 million.
Subscribers growing fastest in A and B circles…
The net adds in ‘A’ circles declined from 2.9 million in December 2011 to
2.8 million in January 2012 representing a 2.2% decline. The net adds in
Metros, B Circles and C circles increased from 0.7, 2.9 and 1.1 million to
1.0, 3.4 and 1.2 million subscribers, respectively. Again ‘B’ and ‘A’ circles
commanded the highest share in net adds of 40.8% and 33.0%,
respectively.
Industry Outlook
The recent Supreme Court ruling of cancelling 122 licenses, which were
awarded on or after January 2008 and re auctioning them within four
months, has brought some regulatory clarity in the industry. While Bharti
and RCom are insulated from this ruling, Idea stands to lose 13 of its
licenses in its new circles. We expect Bharti to be a beneficiary of this
ruling as it gives the incumbents a chance to acquire subscribers of the
new operators whose licenses stand cancelled. Also, with higher capex
for acquiring licenses, which stand cancelled, in sight, we expect more
rationality to reflect in the pricing in the industry. The final NTP 2011 has
been in lines with Trai recommendations except that the one-time
spectrum charges would be decided by market prices during auctioning
of licenses freed by the new operators. With huge debt on the books of
players, we expect the bidding to be rational and the auction prices to be
significantly lower than those recommended by Trai based on 3G auction
price. We expect the one-time license fees for spectrums above 6.2 MHz
to be significantly lower for Bharti and Idea. We continue to rate Bharti,
Idea and RCom as BUY, HOLD and SELL, respectively.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
S u b s c r i b e r a d d i t i o n r i s e s a g a i n …
Subscriber addition rises again…
After increasing last month, subscriber additions in the telecom industry
continued to rise in January 2012. The industry added 8.4 million GSM
subscribers in January 2012 as against 7.6 million in December 2011. The
total GSM subscribers for the industry stood at 648.1 million.
While net adds for Uninor increase that for Idea decline!
While Uninor saw a rise in its subscriber addition from 2.1 million in
December 2011 to 2.5 million in January 2012, Idea witnessed a steep
decline from 2.4 million to 1.7 million. Uninor had a share in net adds of
29.5%, while Idea managed 20.7%. Idea and Uninor have been sharing
the top two spots since September. While the former has added 9.7
million subscribers since September with a share in net adds of 26.7%,
the latter has added 11.1 million with a share in net adds of 30.5%.
Bharti up; Vodafone stagnant!
While Bharti Airtel reported net adds of 1.3 million in January 2012 as
against 1.0 million in December 2011, Vodafone reported flat net adds of
0.9 million. The share in net adds increased from 12.7% to 15.4% for
Bharti and decreased from 12.0% to 10.1% for Vodafone.
Others
While net adds for BSNL increased from 0.4 million to 0.9 million in
January, Aircel’s net adds increased from 0.7 million to 0.8 million
subscribers. Other operators cumulatively saw their net adds increasing
from 0.1 million to 0.4 million.
Subscribers growing fastest in A and B circles…
The net adds in ‘A’ circles declined from 2.9 million in December 2011 to
2.8 million in January 2012 representing a 2.2% decline. The net adds in
Metros, B Circles and C circles increased from 0.7, 2.9 and 1.1 million to
1.0, 3.4 and 1.2 million subscribers, respectively. Again ‘B’ and ‘A’ circles
commanded the highest share in net adds of 40.8% and 33.0%,
respectively.
Industry Outlook
The recent Supreme Court ruling of cancelling 122 licenses, which were
awarded on or after January 2008 and re auctioning them within four
months, has brought some regulatory clarity in the industry. While Bharti
and RCom are insulated from this ruling, Idea stands to lose 13 of its
licenses in its new circles. We expect Bharti to be a beneficiary of this
ruling as it gives the incumbents a chance to acquire subscribers of the
new operators whose licenses stand cancelled. Also, with higher capex
for acquiring licenses, which stand cancelled, in sight, we expect more
rationality to reflect in the pricing in the industry. The final NTP 2011 has
been in lines with Trai recommendations except that the one-time
spectrum charges would be decided by market prices during auctioning
of licenses freed by the new operators. With huge debt on the books of
players, we expect the bidding to be rational and the auction prices to be
significantly lower than those recommended by Trai based on 3G auction
price. We expect the one-time license fees for spectrums above 6.2 MHz
to be significantly lower for Bharti and Idea. We continue to rate Bharti,
Idea and RCom as BUY, HOLD and SELL, respectively.
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