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¾ Q4CY11 Results - Revenues at Rs38bn (up 78% YoY), EBITDA
at Rs16bn (up 550%) and APAT was Rs15bn (up 10x)
¾ Base business was flat in USD terms and grew by 14% in
Rupee terms. Lipitor contributed USD300mn in revenues.
India business grew by 8%
¾ Base business margins expanded by 400bps YoY and 160bps
QoQ to 10% mainly due to Rupee depreciation
¾ Going forward base business is expected to grow by 27% and
margins are expected to expand by 400bps to 12% on back of
strong growth in US and Rupee depreciation benefit
¾ With strengthening of base business, we upgrade stock to
Buy from Accumulate with a target price of Rs504
Revenue growth led by Lipitor sales in US
¾ Base business was flat in USD terms and grew by 14% in Rupee terms. India
business grew by 8%
¾ Lipitor contributed USD300mn to US revenues otherwise base sales remained flat.
Payment to Teva on Lipitor was ~USD150mn which was included in other expenses
¾ Lipitor has taken ~42% market share with price erosion of 65%. Management
remained confident of retaining the higher share post exclusivity
¾ Base business margins expanded by 400bps YoY and 160bps QoQ to 10% mainly
due to Rupee depreciation
Going forward
¾ Base business is expected to grow by 27% in CY12 and 19% in CY13. Margins will
expand by 400bps in CY12 and 200bps in CY13
¾ Strong Para IV pipeline which includes Lipitor, Actos and Diovan will contribute USD
560mn in revenues and EPS of Rs42 in CY12
¾ Company has entered into consent decree with USFDA. Resolution of Poanta Sahib
and Dewas can lead to USD 100mn of revenues over period of 2-3 years, this not
built in our estimates
Valuation
We expect Ranbaxy to report 27% growth in base business revenue in CY12E and 19%
in CY13E. Base EBIDTA margins are expected to increase from 8.2% in CY11to 12.5%
in CY12E & 14.3% in CY13E. Base Earnings are expected to register 24% CAGR over
CY11-13E to Rs11.6bn clocking an EPS of Rs28 in CY13E. We value the stock at
Rs504 (20x CY12E base EPS of Rs22 and NPV of Rs64). Upgrade the stock to Buy
from Accumulate.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
¾ Q4CY11 Results - Revenues at Rs38bn (up 78% YoY), EBITDA
at Rs16bn (up 550%) and APAT was Rs15bn (up 10x)
¾ Base business was flat in USD terms and grew by 14% in
Rupee terms. Lipitor contributed USD300mn in revenues.
India business grew by 8%
¾ Base business margins expanded by 400bps YoY and 160bps
QoQ to 10% mainly due to Rupee depreciation
¾ Going forward base business is expected to grow by 27% and
margins are expected to expand by 400bps to 12% on back of
strong growth in US and Rupee depreciation benefit
¾ With strengthening of base business, we upgrade stock to
Buy from Accumulate with a target price of Rs504
Revenue growth led by Lipitor sales in US
¾ Base business was flat in USD terms and grew by 14% in Rupee terms. India
business grew by 8%
¾ Lipitor contributed USD300mn to US revenues otherwise base sales remained flat.
Payment to Teva on Lipitor was ~USD150mn which was included in other expenses
¾ Lipitor has taken ~42% market share with price erosion of 65%. Management
remained confident of retaining the higher share post exclusivity
¾ Base business margins expanded by 400bps YoY and 160bps QoQ to 10% mainly
due to Rupee depreciation
Going forward
¾ Base business is expected to grow by 27% in CY12 and 19% in CY13. Margins will
expand by 400bps in CY12 and 200bps in CY13
¾ Strong Para IV pipeline which includes Lipitor, Actos and Diovan will contribute USD
560mn in revenues and EPS of Rs42 in CY12
¾ Company has entered into consent decree with USFDA. Resolution of Poanta Sahib
and Dewas can lead to USD 100mn of revenues over period of 2-3 years, this not
built in our estimates
Valuation
We expect Ranbaxy to report 27% growth in base business revenue in CY12E and 19%
in CY13E. Base EBIDTA margins are expected to increase from 8.2% in CY11to 12.5%
in CY12E & 14.3% in CY13E. Base Earnings are expected to register 24% CAGR over
CY11-13E to Rs11.6bn clocking an EPS of Rs28 in CY13E. We value the stock at
Rs504 (20x CY12E base EPS of Rs22 and NPV of Rs64). Upgrade the stock to Buy
from Accumulate.
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