02 February 2012

Buy DB Corp; Target : Rs 230 ::ICICI Securities

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R e s u l t s   i n   l i n e ;   o u t l o o k   u n c e r t a i n …
DB Corp reported its Q3FY12 numbers, which have been in line with our
estimates. Revenues for Q3FY12 stood at | 395.6 crore, up by 13.6% YoY
led by an 8.6% growth in ad income to | 305.9 crore. EBITDA for the
quarter stood at | 101.8 crore against our estimate of | 98.9 crore. The
EBITDA margin stood at 25.7% contracting by 724 bps on account of onetime expenses of | 2.1 crore on the launch in Maharashtra and the impact
of operating losses of new editions along with | 2.8 crore of forex loss.
PAT for the quarter fell 16.0% YoY to | 55.4 crore against our estimate of
| 56.1 crore mainly due to a forex loss of | 5.9 crore, which was not
accounted for in EBITDA.
Highlights of the quarter
In line with the industry, DB Corp posted subdued ad growth of 8.6% YoY
to | 305.9 crore. The print ad revenue posted modest growth of 6.8% YoY
to | 287.2 crore whereas the radio business grew 21.7% YoY to | 15.7
crore. The management attributed the subdued growth in print to the
slowing economy causing national advertisers to cut down on their ad
spends. Retail ads, however, grew ~ 11.0% YoY. Circulation revenue
posted a strong growth of 16.7% YoY to | 63.0 crore on the back of
increased circulation and a price hike Madhya Pradesh and Haryana.
V a l u a t i o n
While national advertisers have cut down their ad spends, retail ads have
grown ~11%. Due to an uncertain economic outlook pressurising the ad
growth in the future and menacing newsprint prices, we have cut our
estimates of FY12 and FY13 EPS from | 11.2 to | 10.7 and from | 15.5 to |
14.4, respectively. At the CMP of | 188, the stock is trading at 17.5x FY12
EPS and 13.0x FY13 EPS. We have valued the stock at 16x FY13 EPS to
arrive at a target price of | 230 implying an upside potential of 23%. We
continue to rate the stock as BUY

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