28 February 2012

28 Feb: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
It was a bad start to the trading week for the Indian markets as the bears attacked with a swift 2.73% cut. As a result Nifty has dropped below the 5300 mark as well as the 21 day EMA at 5353 and threatening to make lower lows. The index opened mildly in the positive where it was met with selling continuing from the previous week and the sellers dragged it lower every hour to close near the low of the day. It is now very close to re-testing the 13-month trend line break earlier in January at 5235 and even poses a risk of breaking lower. Although trading volumes were on the lower side, the breath was extremely negative with an A/D ratio of 1:6.5, indicative of the broad-based rout. Momentum oscillators on the hourly chart are extremely oversold (RSI at 20), and the daily oscillators maintain their bearish stance. There is an intermediate term bullish development in the form of a ‘Golden Cross’ i.e., the 50 day EMA crosses above 200 day EMA at 5179. Since the index has pierced below the 21 DEMA at 5353, expect Nifty to re-test the trend line support at 5235 and exhibit a pullback rally higher. In case of further weakness, the fall is likely to extend towards the 200 DMA of 5170. It will be prudent to reduce trading shorts on decline and possibly look at opening some longs via index options or selective stock picking. Barring the defensive buying in FMCG index (+0.29%), all other sectoral indices ended the day in the red. Among the top losers of the day were Realty (-5.29%), Metals (-4.86%) and Power (-3.97%) stocks. The broader markets were worse off than their frontline counterparts as the Mid-cap and Small-cap indices lost 3.02% and 3.26% respectively.
 Bullish Setups: ITC, INFY, PWGR, HPCL, ACEM
Bearish Setups: TATA, SESA, AXSB, UNBK, HDFCB
  

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