07 January 2012

Strategy: India witnesses outflows worth US$5.4 bn in 2011 :: Kotak Securities

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Strategy
Foreign fund-flow tracker
India witnesses outflows worth US$5.4 bn in 2011. KIE’s foreign fund-flow tracker
gives us a comprehensive view of market flow activity in India and among its emerging
market peers. Using a top-down approach, we analyze country flows and the
underlying factors which affect them, such as fund flows and country allocations for
different fund types.
Country flows: Total Indian outflows amount to US$5.4 bn in 2011
India has continued to witness outflows as the EPFR universe of funds sold US$448 mn worth of
equities in December. On a yearly basis, the net outflows from India have amounted to US$5.4 bn
out of which ETFs (which were the major participants in the latter half of CY2010) have seen net
outflows worth US$1.2 bn. During the same period, Brazil and China have witnessed outflows
worth US$6.7 bn and US$7.5 bn, respectively. Only Taiwan remains positive on a yoy basis as ETFs
steadied the ship with inflows worth US$1.8 bn in 2011.
Country allocations: India allocations for Asia ex-Japan funds down to 9.6%
Allocations to India moved lower in November from 10.4% to 9.6%. On a yoy basis, allocations to
India by Asia ex-Japan funds have fallen 1.9%. Current allocations are the lowest levels since Apr
2009 when India allocations were at 8.8%. South Korea seems to be the biggest beneficiary with
allocations rising from 11.9% to 13.5% during the same period. For emerging market funds,
allocations to India are at 8% (down 1% yoy).
Fund flows: Strong inflows for iShares MSCI EM ETF worth US$3.8 bn in the past three months
Activity by India-dedicated funds has remained quite subdued in December with the largest
outflows coming from Lyxor MSCI India ETF (US$43 mn). While most of the large funds under
coverage have seen AUMs shrink by 18-20% in the past three months, Aberdeen Global India
Equity Fund outperformed with AUMs down only 8% during the period. In the EM universe,
iShares MSCI EM ETF saw inflows worth US$3.8 bn in the past three months alone taking its AUM
to US$32 bn. Its size is only overshadowed by Vanguard MSCI EM ETF which is currently managing
US$41 bn.

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