Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Expect exclusive Lipitor launch to drive growth
We expect Ranbaxy to deliver 58% revenue growth y-y; this includes expected revenues
from the exclusive Lipitor launch in US. Lipitor’s US launch is a significantly large
variable and in our estimates, we are factoring in revenues of USD200mn from Lipitor
and authorized generic of Caduet.
Building in some growth revival in domestic business
Growth in the domestic market has been below our expectations in single digits, in the
recent past. A slowdown in anti-infectives has been one key reason for the slowdown, in
our view. However, we have seen a moderate recovery in growth for anti infectives and
gastro intestinal segments in 3QFY12. Thus, we are factoring in marginal acceleration to
10% y-y growth in 4QCY11.
Lipitor gains and INR depreciation help boost EBITDA estimates
We are factoring in ~75% gross margin for Lipitor (assuming profit sharing with Teva)
and 30% gross margin for Caduet. We estimate these two products to contribute INR
7.35bn to EBITDA. Excluding this, the EBITDA estimates stands at INR 2.40bn, higher
than ~INR 1.5bn (ex higher other income) recorded in the previous quarter. We believe
at the core EBITDA level Ranbaxy will gain from INR depreciation against export
currencies.
Forex losses and provisioning of DoJ penalty could suppress earnings for the
quarter
We factor in INR4bn loss on account of MTM losses on forex derivative and INR 2.5bn
on forex loans. The losses are in line with the quantum recorded in 3QCY11. Further, we
have provisioned a charge of USD500mn during the current quarter into our estimates.
Alternatively, Ranbaxy may provide for the same as contingent liability. Excluding these
losses, we estimate that the company will record a profit of INR7.63bn for the quarter.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Expect exclusive Lipitor launch to drive growth
We expect Ranbaxy to deliver 58% revenue growth y-y; this includes expected revenues
from the exclusive Lipitor launch in US. Lipitor’s US launch is a significantly large
variable and in our estimates, we are factoring in revenues of USD200mn from Lipitor
and authorized generic of Caduet.
Building in some growth revival in domestic business
Growth in the domestic market has been below our expectations in single digits, in the
recent past. A slowdown in anti-infectives has been one key reason for the slowdown, in
our view. However, we have seen a moderate recovery in growth for anti infectives and
gastro intestinal segments in 3QFY12. Thus, we are factoring in marginal acceleration to
10% y-y growth in 4QCY11.
Lipitor gains and INR depreciation help boost EBITDA estimates
We are factoring in ~75% gross margin for Lipitor (assuming profit sharing with Teva)
and 30% gross margin for Caduet. We estimate these two products to contribute INR
7.35bn to EBITDA. Excluding this, the EBITDA estimates stands at INR 2.40bn, higher
than ~INR 1.5bn (ex higher other income) recorded in the previous quarter. We believe
at the core EBITDA level Ranbaxy will gain from INR depreciation against export
currencies.
Forex losses and provisioning of DoJ penalty could suppress earnings for the
quarter
We factor in INR4bn loss on account of MTM losses on forex derivative and INR 2.5bn
on forex loans. The losses are in line with the quantum recorded in 3QCY11. Further, we
have provisioned a charge of USD500mn during the current quarter into our estimates.
Alternatively, Ranbaxy may provide for the same as contingent liability. Excluding these
losses, we estimate that the company will record a profit of INR7.63bn for the quarter.
No comments:
Post a Comment