29 January 2012

Buy Hindustan Zinc; Target :Rs 142 ::ICICI Securities

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I n   l i n e   p e r f o r m a n c e …
Hindustan Zinc’s (HZL) Q3FY12 numbers were broadly in line with our
estimates. Net sales came in at | 2747 crore (I-direct estimate: | 2863.1
crore) registering growth of 5.9%  QoQ and 5.6% YoY. On the back of
muted realisations, EBITDA margins declined 540 bps QoQ and 690 bps
YoY to 51.1%. The resultant net profit declined by 5.3% QoQ and 1.2%
YoY to | 1273.6 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1297.9 crore).
ƒ Operational performance
Refined zinc production in the quarter under review was up 7% YoY
at 190,946 tonnes, primarily on account of improved throughput and
operational efficiencies. Refined lead production in Q3 was highest
ever at 28,804 tonnes, up 102% YoY. This was primarily due to
volume contribution from the  newly commissioned 100kt Dariba
Lead smelter, currently under ramp-up. Refined silver production in
Q3 was the highest ever at 57,595 kg, up 37% YoY. This was mainly
attributable to higher input from mines and volume contribution
from the new 350 TPA silver refinery commissioned during the
quarter.
ƒ Expansion projects
The ramp-up of the Sindesar Khurd mine is on track to achieve its
targeted 2.0 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) capacity by March
2012. The new silver refinery of 350 TPA was successfully
commissioned in Q3FY12.
V a l u a t i o n
At the CMP of | 135, after adjusting for LME volatility in our estimates, the
stock is trading at FY12E EV/EBITDA of 5.4x and FY13E EV/EBITDA of
4.1x. We expect the company to register growth of 11.8% and 13.9%
CAGR in topline and bottomline, respectively, during FY11-FY13E. We
have valued the stock at FY13E EV/EBITDA of 5.0x to arrive at our target
price of | 142 and assigned a BUY rating to the stock

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