Economy: December IIP: Pulled down by base effects :: Kotak Sec

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Economy
Industrial Production
December IIP: Pulled down by base effects. Industrial growth decelerated to a 20-
month low of 1.6% in December, lower than consensus expectations of 2% but higher
than our own number of (-)0.7%. November reading was revised up to 3.6% (earlier
2.7%). On the use-based side, relatively strong growth was observed in consumer
durables while capital goods remained volatile. With a strong negative base effect
playing into this month’s number, the headline print masks the 10.3% mom jump in
the index, a reminder of the continued momentum in industrial growth.

Aban Offshore: Better-than-expected EBITDA; one-offs impact bottom line :: Kotak Sec

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Aban Offshore (Aban)
Energy
Better-than-expected EBITDA; one-offs impact bottom line. Aban reported
3QFY11 EBITDA (consolidated) at `5.2 bn (-7.1% qoq, -0.5% yoy) versus our estimate
of `5 bn. Revenues at `7.8 bn were marginally lower than our estimated `7.9 bn.
However, reported net income at `620 mn (-17.5% qoq, -30.7% yoy) was lower versus
our expected `810 mn due to (1) unexpected loss of `433 mn from joint venture and
(2) provision of `135 mn for diminution in the value of investment in Petrojack. We
maintain our BUY rating with a revised DCF-based target price of `815.

MTNL: Beyond repair - bailout required; SELL:: Kotak Sec

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MTNL (MTNL)
Telecom
Beyond repair – bailout required; SELL. MTNL reported another quarter of
disappointing operating performance with an EBITDA loss of Rs3.2 bn (nearly 2X qoq).
Cash support is now completely eroded with 3G/BWA payouts. The recent TRAI
recommendations on excess spectrum pricing and spectrum renewal pricing further
drag the value of the company down. The company has little fundamental value and
needs equity injection to remain a going concern. Cut target price to Rs35; SELL.

HDIL: Trading below book but triggers absent :: Kotak Sec

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Housing Development & Infrastructure
Property
Trading below book but triggers absent. With the stock down 46% over the past
3M, HDIL is trading at 0.6X current book value with FY2012E RoE of 13% and
manageable D/E of 0.35X. HDIL’s equity raising from FY2007 to date is Rs98/share i.e.
72% of current market cap. However, delays in MIAL rehabilitation and aggressive
project investments at this stage of the cycle have emerged as incremental concerns.
We retain our ADD rating with a target price of Rs180/share (0.8x BV) at 18% WACC
and lower value of MIAL project.

HPCL: Results matter little; valuations reflect high skepticism on policy reforms :: Kotak Sec

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Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL)
Energy
Results matter little; valuations reflect high skepticism on policy reforms. HPCL
reported better-than-expected 3QFY11 net income at `2.1 bn versus our estimate of -
`11.3 bn due to compensation of `17.5 bn from the government in 3QFY11 versus nil
assumed by us. We maintain our BUY rating given 44% potential upside to our revised
target price of `490 (`585 previously). Key downside risk stems from higher-thanexpected
net under-recoveries.

Hindalco: Weak quarter; greenfield projects delayed further :: Kotak Sec

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL)
Metals & Mining
Weak quarter; greenfield projects delayed further. Hindalco’s 3QFY11 EBITDA of
Rs7.4 bn, was 14.4% lower than our estimate and impacted by (1) cost pressures; (2)
lower-than-expected production of metal and VAP. Hindalco announced a 9-12 month
delay in commissioning several greenfield projects. The delays are a negative but we see
sufficient catalysts in the form of volume growth, VAP expansion and a likely increase in
profitability of Novels to drive stock performance. ADD.

Tata Motors: In-line quarter :: Kotak Sec

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Tata Motors (TTMT IN)
Automobiles
In-line quarter. 3QFY11 consolidated recurring PAT of Rs24.6 bn (+17% qoq) was in
line with our estimates. Standalone profits were 31% ahead of our estimates due to
better-than-expected realizations while JLR profit missed our estimates by 13% largely
due to increase in product development expenses. We maintain our ADD rating on the
stock and increase our target price to Rs1,305 based on sum of parts valuation
methodology

IOCL: Results boosted by cash compensation :: Kotak Sec

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Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL)
Energy
Results boosted by cash compensation. IOCL reported better-than-expected 3QFY11
(standalone) EBITDA at `32.9 bn versus our estimate of `3.6 bn due to compensation of
`44.4 bn from the government in 3QFY11 versus nil assumed by us. This was partly
compensated by (1) lower-then-expected adventitious gains and (2) lower refining
margins at US$6.3/bbl versus US$6.7/bbl assumed by us. We maintain our BUY rating
on the stock with a revised target price of `440 (`500 previously). Key downside risk
stems from higher-than-expected net under-recoveries.

Buy Deccan Chronicle Holding; Target Rs. 128. – 3QFY2011 Result - Angel Broking

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Deccan Chronicle Holding – 3QFY2011 Result Update

Angel Broking maintains a Buy on Deccan Chronicle Holding with a Target Price of Rs. 128.

Post Deccan Chronicle Holdings’ (DCHL) 3QFY2011 results, we have revised our
estimates downwards primarily to factor in lower revival in advertisement volume.
The company posted dismal results for the quarter, with top-line de-growth of
14.5% yoy and earnings decline of 54.7% yoy impacted by margin contraction of
1,648bp yoy. Owing to attractive valuations, we maintain a Buy on the stock.

Buy GIPCL – 3QFY2011 Result; Target Price of Rs. 135. -Angel Broking

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 GIPCL – 3QFY2011 Result Update

Angel Broking maintains a Buy on GIPCL with a Target Price of Rs. 135.

For 3QFY2011, GIPCL posted a 15.4% yoy decline in net profit to `24cr,

primarily due to higher interest and depreciation costs. On the operating front

too, the company posted low PLF’s owing to low availability of gas and plant

shutdown for maintenance, affecting top-line growth. Going ahead, we expect the

newly commissioned 250MW Surat Lignite Power Plant (SLPP) units 3&4 to record

higher PLF’s, which would result in generation volumes spurting. We maintain a

Buy on the stock.

Acropetal Technologies - IPO Note (Keynote Capitals)

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note of the IPO of Acropetal Technologies Ltd.

Issue Highlights

Price Band                                                    :     Rs88-90 per share                                                                            

Minimum Bid Lot Size                                  :     60 Equity Shares

Maximum Bid Lot Size                                  :     2,220 Equity Shares

IPO open during                                           :     February 21 - 24, 2011

Book Running Lead Managers                      :     Saffron Capital Advisors Private Ltd.

To list on                                                      :     NSE & BSE

IPO Grading                                                  :     3 / 5 (ICRA)

PE                                                                 :     4.62x (based on base price)*

                                                                     :     4.72x (based on cap price)*

Market Cap post-listing                                 :     Rs350Cr or $77.4mn (based on the cap price)

Market Cap of Free Float                               :     Rs196Cr or $43.3mn (based on the cap price)

*Based on FY10 EPS

IPO of 18.89mn equity shares of Rs10 each, aggregating to Rs170Cr or $37.6mn (at the cap price)

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 21-Feb-2011

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FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 21-Feb-2011.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 21-Feb-2011 2006.78 2252.2 -245.42

 

Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 21-Feb-2011.

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 21-Feb-2011 800.36 827.97 -27.61

 

-- 

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 21-Feb-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 21-Feb-2011
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	106153	2899.52	123137	3367.13	654882	18115.48	-467.61
INDEX OPTIONS	308484	8357.12	310940	8460.28	2202278	60767.61	-103.17
STOCK FUTURES	226484	5702.16	223671	5579.14	1250506	31132.80	123.02
STOCK OPTIONS	16349	459.43	16259	456.15	26310	707.54	3.28
						Total	-444.48

 

BSE, Bulk deals, 21/2/2011

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Scrip Code	Company	Client Name	Deal Type *	Quantity	Price **
533163	Arss Infra Proj	RKSV SECURITIES INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED	B	89169	763.04
533163	Arss Infra Proj	H P SHARE SHOPPE	B	101141	753.26
533163	Arss Infra Proj	CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	B	229620	755.15
533163	Arss Infra Proj	A K G SECURITIES AND CONSULTANCY LTD	B	139096	759.93
533163	Arss Infra Proj	CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED	S	229770	758.67

NSE, Bulk deals, 21-Feb-2011

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Symbol	Security Name	Client Name	Buy / Sell	Quantity Traded	Wght. Avg.  Price
ADSL	Allied Digital Services L	BP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITED	BUY	2,42,031	94.69
ADSL	Allied Digital Services L	BP FINTRADE PRIVATE LIMITED	SELL	2,24,529	94.52
ARSSINFRA	ARSS Infra Proj. Ltd	CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.	BUY	2,29,849	757.50
ARSSINFRA	ARSS Infra Proj. Ltd	CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.	SELL	2,29,370	754.48
ARSSINFRA	ARSS Infra Proj. Ltd	GARNET INTERNATIONAL LTD	BUY	1,67,521	748.51

Clients, NRI, Proprietary trading activity 21-Feb-11

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(Rs. crore)	Clients
Trade Date	Buy	Sales	Net
21/2/11	1,952.99	1,944.66	8.33
18/2/11	2,600.31	2,574.24	26.06
17/2/11	2,349.14	2,416.31	-67.17
Feb , 11	34,173.53	34,716.05	-542.52
Since 1/1/11	80,455.51	80,865.97	-410.46
(Rs. crore)	NRI
Trade Date	Buy	Sales	Net
21/2/11	0.34	0.34	0
18/2/11	0.97	0.60	0.37
17/2/11	0.74	1.30	-0.56
Feb , 11	18.23	9.51	8.72
Since 1/1/11	44.00	36.38	7.62
(Rs. crore)	Proprietary
Trade Date	Buy	Sales	Net
21/2/11	584.78	546.33	38.45
18/2/11	702.47	734.32	-31.86
17/2/11	616.41	608.19	8.22
Feb , 11	10,210.28	10,309.46	-99.18
Since 1/1/11	23,703.07	23,985.17	-282.10