Macquarie Research:: Asian oil & petrochemicals -Crude price hike: Gains and Pains

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Asian oil & petrochemicals
Crude price hike: Gains and Pains
Event
􀂃 The Macquarie oil economist Jan Stuart has raised FY11-13E WTI crude
price estimates by 6-21% and the long-term estimate by 6% to US$ 90/bbl on
the back of bullish economic data, especially from developed economies

Macquarie Research, Asia Oil and Petrochemicals- Medium-term prospects brighten

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Asia Oil and Petrochemicals
Medium-term prospects brighten
Refining and Petrochemicals update
 Refining margins stay firm and remain above our $5.9/bbl forecast despite an
8% pullback from the previous week. This supports our optimism for the sector.
Middle distillates are still key drivers and continue their multi-week uptrend.
 Petrochemical margins also remain strong with key spreads posting
double-digit gains WoW. In particular, we expect the PX spread could
continue its upward trend, supported by 140-year high cotton prices (PX is
raw material for polyester which is the key substitute for cotton). We also
believe a heavy turnaround schedule of MEG facilities in the Middle East
could lend support to the MEG spread for the rest of 2011.

Zee Entertainment: REDUCE Target Price: RS.117 :: Kotak Securities

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


ZEE ENTERTAINMENT ENTERPRISES LTD (ZEEL)
PRICE: RS.114
RECOMMENDATION: REDUCE
TARGET PRICE: RS.117
FY12E P/E: 19.4X

q ZEEL's 3QFY11 profits, excluding  one-off revenues, were below our and
consensus expectations. Advertising and subscription revenues were
broadly in line with our expectations. The company's content expenses
have risen sharply (largely on account of sports), without a similar impact on recurring revenues, leading to the negative surprise on recurring
earnings.
q Following the results, we raise our FY11 revenue and EPS estimates
2.4%, and 3.4% respectively (after incorporating one-off revenues in our
top-line estimate). However, given that the rise is on account of one-off
revenues, and fundamentals appear to have worsened, we cut our earnings estimates for FY12 and beyond. We reduce our FY11 margin estimates to 26%, and FY12 margin estimates to 25.4%. Our EPS estimate for
FY12 is reduced by 7.6%. We expect ZEEL to report EPS of Rs 5.9 for FY11
and FY12.

Tier 1 IT Services — Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall…:: Ambit research

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

THEMATIC

IT-Tier 1 IT Services — Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall…

Tier 1 Indian IT firms have outperformed the Sensex by 14% over the last twelve months and are trading at ~20x FY12 P/E. Such share prices imply long term revenue growth rates >20% over FY11-16 and sustained margin performance. Our reverse DCF analysis indicates that this will be tough to achieve given: a) the increasingly competitive stance taken by western competitors, b) the changing sources of competitive advantage, and c) structural wage inflation in India. Whilst the Tier 1 IT vendors are likely to show strong ongoing momentum in CY11, this is already priced into current valuations whilst the likely (and painful) evolution of the current business model is at presently being ignored by the stockmarket.

Macquarie Research:: Asian Macqro forecasts: Commodity price sensitivities

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

Asian Macqro forecasts


Commodity price sensitivities
Slower growth in CY11
This report contains detailed forecasts for the economies that we cover across
Asia, and the latter section sets out the prospects for individual economies. We
see activity slowing significantly in CY11–12 after the post-crisis rebound of
2009–10. Much of this reflects the base effect but policy tightening is helping to
slow growth and limit inflation risks.

NIIT Technologies: December 2010 quarter review: Kotak Securities

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


NIIT TECHNOLOGIES LTD (NIITT)
PRICE: RS.210
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
TARGET PRICE: RS.311
FY10E P/E: 5.9X
NIITT's 3QFY11 results soundly beat our estimates. Revenues grew by 5%
(excluding BSF order), on the back of a 4.7% rise in volumes, which was a
positive surprise in a seasonally weak quarter. Average realizations
remained stable. The company was able to maintain the EBIDTA margins (exBSF) despite some increase in off-shore salaries. Non-linear revenues and offshore shift helped. Acquisition of a healthcare platform is a step further in
the direction of non-linear revenues. ROOM revenues are also showing
consistent growth. Non-linear revenues grew at company average and did
provide some support to margins. The order bookings have maintained
momentum with the company bidding for a few larger orders in the $10mn
- $50mn range. We have increased our FY11E and FY12E EPS estimates to
Rs.31 and Rs.34.8. Our DCF - based price target stands at Rs.311 (Rs.291
earlier), based on FY12 earnings. At our TP, our FY12 earnings will be
discounted by about 9x which, we believe, is undemanding. We maintain
BUY. NIITT has been achieving consisting revenue growth and margins over
the past few quarters. We note that, 4Q revenues may see moderate growth
in line with the reduction in BSF bought-out component.

ZENSAR TECHNOLOGIES: Result review: price target of Rs.211: Kotak securities

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


ZENSAR TECHNOLOGIES LTD
PRICE: RS.170
RECOMMENDATION: BUY
TARGET PRICE: RS.211
FY12E PE: 4.9X
q Zensar's operating results were marginally lower than our estimates for
this seasonally weak quarter.
q Volumes remained flat due to lower billing hours but the company was
able to maintain margins despite the rupee appreciation. Billing rates
remained stable and the management expects rates to rise some time
early next fiscal, in case demand persists.
q Higher other income compensated for the one time tax provision and led
to higher-than-estimated PAT.

Petronet LNG Results above expectation; Maintain BUY:: Emkay

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

Petronet LNG

Results above expectation; Maintain BUY

BUY

CMP: Rs 132                                       Target Price: Rs 156

---

n     Results were above estimate, mainly due to higher volume growth of 26% to 119.7tbtu during the quarter

n     EBIDTA margin expanded by 20bps YoY to 9.5% (60bps QoQ), mainly on account of higher spot volumes offtake during the quarter

n     Signed medium term contract of 1.1mmtpa LNG, provides further upside to long term volumes from 7.5mmtpa to 8.6mmtpa

n     Rise in LNG import and re-gasification charges to help ROE increase from 19% to 22.4% by FY13E, maintain BUY with PT of Rs.156

Kotak Securities News Update: JANUARY 19, 2011

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Economy News
4 The government is expecting to exceed the direct tax collection target of
Rs.4.3 trillion for 2010-11 on the backdrop of high economic growth of
8.9% recorded during the first half of the current fiscal (ET).
4 India is considering imposition of anti-dumping duty of up to 40.9% on
the import of glass fibre, used in automobiles, electrical insulation and
heat resistant fabrics, from China to protect domestic players (ET).
4 The industry ministry has proposed a change in the foreign direct
investment (FDI) policy that will give companies flexibility in pricing of
convertible instruments to raise funds overseas (ET).

To apply / subscribe to Tata Steel FPO or not? Emkay says Subscribe

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

Tata Steel

Following on the restructuring path; Subscribe

SUBSCRIBE

Price Band: Rs 594- 610

---

n     Tata Steel announced to issue 57 million shares as follow on public offering including 1.5 million shares for the employees

n     At the higher and lower ends of the price band, the company would mop up Rs 34.8 billion and Rs 33.9 billion respectively

n     On fully subscription, there would be an equity dilution of 6.3% and at the extended equity base the promoters’ stake would come down to 30.5% from 32.5%

n     At our target price of Rs 712, on the upper end of the offer price band the stock has a potential upside of 17%. Recommend SUBSCRIBE 

Ispat Industries - awaiting turnaround; visit note; Edelweiss

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

Ispat Industries (NDEN IN, INR 25, Not Rated)

We recently visited Ispat Industries’ (Ispat) HRC plant near Mumbai. Key takeaways of the same are as follows:

n  Rapid ramp up of HRC production to 70% utilisation; targeting 90%

Ispat has rapidly ramped up HRC production to 70% utilisation after re commissioning operations in end December. Target utilisation is 90%, the key challenges for achieving which will be working capital availability and raw material sourcing. We expect JSW Steel to address these issues over the next two quarters. In 12mFY10, actual capacity utilization was 80%.

LIC Housing Finance- Robust results but spreads under pressure:: Emkay

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

LIC Housing Finance

Robust results but spreads under pressure

UNDER REVIEW

CMP: Rs170                                        Target Price: Under Review

---

n     LICHF earnings ahead of estimates at Rs3.0bn led by higher than expected NII and lower tax rate

n     NIMs surprisingly expand by 22bps as LICHF revised lending rate on old loans by 50bps wef Oct 2010 even as incremental spreads contracted by 47bps

n     Another 50bps hike in PLR (from Jan-11) alongwith 50-85bps increase in rates for advantage five scheme will contain the fall in incre spreads and strongly support NIMs

n     Very positive on the stock with valuations at 1.6x FY12E ABV – almost near 10-yr average.  We will be reviewing our rating and price target after talking to management

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 19-Jan-2011

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 19-Jan-2011. FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 19-Jan-2011 3167.71 3438.09 -270.38 Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 19-Jan-2011. DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 19-Jan-2011 1540.76 1052.23 488.53

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 19-Jan-2011

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 19-Jan-2011
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	80921	2307.09	73948	2111.57	442020	12496.28	195.51
INDEX OPTIONS	261788	7464.85	251341	7159.16	1828827	52037.75	305.70
STOCK FUTURES	111546	3043.37	95142	2634.23	1314272	33742.66	409.14
STOCK OPTIONS	10541	308.98	9859	293.97	22269	618.40	15.01
						Total	925.36

 

BSE, Bulk deals, 19/1/2011

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

Scrip Code	Company	Client Name	Deal Type *	Quantity	Price **
531678	Anand Credit	MAHESH DHARIRA	B	60000	7.77
512535	Asahi Infra	INDRAVARUN TRADE IMPEX PVT LTD	B	461066	11.04
512535	Asahi Infra	BASMATI SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED	S	199118	10.14
512535	Asahi Infra	INDRAVARUN TRADE IMPEX PVT LTD	S	616911	10.61
530187	Atharv Enter	MAPAEX INVESTMENTS PRIVATE LIMITED	B	75000	11.70
530187	Atharv Enter	RITU NITIN JAJU	S	50000	11.70
530187	Atharv Enter	RAMSWARUP JAINARAYAN JAJU	S	25000	11.70
531591	Bampsl Sec	NAVEEN GUPTA	B	621701	2.72

NSE, Bulk deals, 19-Jan-2011

Please Share:: India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��

Symbol	Security Name	Client Name	Buy / Sell	Quantity Traded	Wght. Avg.  Price
AGRE	Agre Developers Ltd	SANGHAI COMMERCIAL & CREDITS PVT LTD	BUY	1,98,223	45.60
ASSAMCO	Assam Company India Ltd	LOTUS GLOBAL INVESTMENTS LTD	SELL	112,00,000	19.05
ASSAMCO	Assam Company India Ltd	SIRIYARI TRADECOM PRIVATE LIMITED	BUY	112,00,000	19.05
CAMLIN	Camlin Ltd.	KENT RESORTS PRIVATE LIMITED	BUY	5,40,000	52.57
CCCL	Consolidated Construction	VEMF-A LP	SELL	10,70,110	48.50
INSECTICID	Insecticides (India) Limi	NIKON FINLEASE PVT. LTD	BUY	94,825	241.42