17 December 2011

RBI Policy Review - Tightening ends; growth to take precedence ::Edelweiss

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In the mid-quarter monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has left the repo rate and CRR unchanged, as expected. The accompanying statement is on the dovish side, with the central bank acknowledging downside risks to its FY12 growth projection of 7.6% while expressing confidence about its inflation projection of 7% by March 2012 despite INR weakness and sticky crude oil prices. Overall, this policy marks the end of the current tightening cycle. Incrementally, the balance of the policy is clearly shifting in favour of managing growth compared to managing inflation earlier and we suspect that reversal in the rate cycle will happen sooner than later. On liquidity front, while RBI is not overly concerned, it will be conducting more OMOs to address high deficit conditions at LAF.

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