26 December 2011

26 Dec 2011:: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR) :Edelweiss,

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
Nifty retreated mildly lower after two sessions of sharp rally as traders looked to book profits or lighten on positions as they enter a period of low trading activity. The index opened on a positive note tracing the global market trends but selling soon emerged at the 200 WSMA level of 4770. Post-noon the index once again attempted to move higher but failed from the same resistance to drop below 4700 and take support at the 21 and 50 hourly EMAs. There was a dip in the trading volumes and the A/D ratio was balanced at 1.2:1. Since we enter the final week of CY 2011, trading activity is expected to be light due to the holiday season which will likely result in periods of high volatility. Momentum oscillators are in neutral territory on the daily chart and in the positive zone on the hourly charts suggesting intraday upside risks. For the coming sessions expect Nifty to continue its ascent from the lows towards the 21 DEMA barrier at 4800 where strong selling is likely to emerge and the index can get into a sideways consolidation phase. The risk to the view is if Nifty manages to breach and close above the said level on a daily/weekly basis, then it could signal a potentially bigger retracement and require a review. Until then traders are recommended to hold/build shorts for a target of 4500 / 4400 over the coming weeks.

Among the prominent sectoral movers, Cap Goods (+0.66%), Autos (+0.23%) and Realty (+0.12%) attracted buying interest, whereas Oil & Gas (-1.05%), Banking (-1.05%) and Metals (-0.42%) stocks dropped lower. Broader market indices fared better that the narrow market with the Mid-cap index ending flat at 0.07% and the Small-cap index gaining 1.07%.

Bullish Setups: DRRD, PIHC, AXSB, LT, SAIL
Bearish Setups: HCLT, LPC, RBXY, TTMT, AL

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