24 November 2011

Telecom sector - October 2011 - GSM subscriber analysis ::Angel Broking

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GSM’s net subscriber addition data reported by Cellular Operators Association of
India (COAI), which demonstrated a slight recovery in September 2011, again
grew moderately by 1.2% mom in October 2011. Net subscriber addition number
stood at 7.1mn in October 2011, taking the total GSM subscriber base to
625.4mn. Even though the mom declining trend in subscriber net addition was
altered, GSM subscriber net addition data was weak across all telecom operators,
except Idea and Uninor.
Operator-wise highlights
In October 2011, net addition run rate on mom basis for most telecom operators
improved slightly, aided by the festive season. Among incumbents, Bharti Airtel
(Bharti) and BSNL reported almost stagnant mom net subscriber addition at
0.9mn and 0.5mn, respectively, for October 2011. Idea again maintained its
lead in net subscriber additions by adding 1.6mn subscribers, increasing its
subscriber market share to 16.3% from 16.2% in September 2011. Vodafone
reported net subscriber addition of 0.9mn, up 8.9% mom, taking its total subscriber
base to 145.9mn. Aircel reported addition of 0.5mn subscribers, down 18.9% mom.
Among new operators, Uninor emerged as a pleasant surprise by adding 2.7mn
subscribers (highest amongst all GSM operators), up 39.1% mom. This led to a
jump in its subscriber market share to 5.2% in October 2011 from 4.8% in
September 2011. Other new operators continued to struggle to gain market
share in net subscriber addition. Videocon reported a net decline of 0.2mn
subscribers in its subscriber base. Net subscriber addition of S Tel and Loop
Mobile declined by 5.0% and 28.0% mom, as these operators added merely
0.04mn and 0.01mn subscribers, respectively.
Circle-wise highlights
In October 2011, net addition run rate of all circles (except Metro circle)
improved, the highest being for C circle, which reported addition of 1.1mn
subscribers, up 35.8% mom from 0.8mn in September 2011. This led to an
increase in net subscriber addition market share of C circle to 15.6% from 12.5%
in September 2011. In the Metro circle, merely 0.2mn subscribers were added in
October 2011 (down 52.4% mom), with Idea reporting the highest net addition of
0.07mn subscribers, followed by Vodafone and Bharti, which reported net
subscriber addition of 0.046mn and 0.043mn, respectively. Subscriber addition
run rate of A circle increased by 20.9% mom to 2.4mn in October 2011 as
against 1.9mn in September 2011. Subscriber addition in B circle increased to
3.4mn in October 2011 from 3.2mn in September 2011.

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