05 July 2011

JPMorgan:: India IT Services: Expect good June-11 quarter results and commentary from large caps with TCS continuing to lead

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India IT Services: Expect good June-11 quarter results and commentary from large caps with TCS continuing
to lead



We expect  the June-11 quarter  to be strong  for TCS, HCLT and even Infosys, but weak for Wipro. We  expect
TCS  to  once  again  lead  the  sector  with  US$  revenue  growth  (Q/Q)  of  ~6.5%,  and  estimate  growth  of  5%-6%  for
Infosys/HCLT. Notably, we expect cross-currency to add 0.5%-0.7% to all four companies’ growth.
We estimate Infosys’ and TCS’ EBIT margins to fall 150 bps and 120 bps Q/Q, respectively, due to annual wage hikes
effective April. We forecast margin  expansion  of  100 bps Q/Q for  HCLT to meet its  4QFY11 EBIT margin target  of
15.3%  (ex ESOP  cost). Wipro’s IT  services margins  should  remain flat  (22%) as wage hikes take effect one quarter
later (July).

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