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Strategy
India Exports
Exploring the money trail, Part 2. We discuss a few points raised by investors as
plausible explanations for the observed gaps between official data on exports and our
bottom-up analysis of exports of companies. Investors and other observers have offered
explanations such as—(1) re-exports of imported materials, (2) difference between fob
and cif data, (3) exports by small unlisted entities, among others. However, publicly
available data does not seem to support the same.
Our observations are based on official data and data of exports of companies
Investors desirous of doing more research into India’s exports and imports can visit the Export
Import Data Section on the website of the Department of Commerce under the Ministry of
Industry and Commerce. The data is quite extensive and covers exports and imports of 99
categories (broken down further into several levels of sub-categories) and is available by countries.
Exports of copper cannot be explained by domestic production or imports of copper
As highlighted in our October 10 report titled Exploring the money trail, exports of copper went
up sharply in FY2011 to US$8.1 bn from US$1.8 bn with a bulk of the increase coming from
copper cathodes (US$7 bn in FY2011 compared to US$1.2 bn in FY2010). (1) Exports of the three
copper producers increased by less than US$0.5 bn and (2) imports of copper (all types) increased
by 60% to US$1.9 bn in FY2011; imports of copper cathodes declined by 12% to US$29 mn.
Data on passenger cars is not supported by data of industry association
As per Government data on exports, exports (value) of passenger cars increased by 74% to
US$5.5 bn in FY2011 from US$3.2 bn in FY2010. As per data of Society of Indian Automobile
Manufacturers (SIAM), exports of cars (units) increased by 1.6% to 453,479 units in FY2011 from
446,145 units in FY2010. We had noted the sharp decline in exports of Hyundai and Maruti in
FY2011 in our October 10 report. Other unlisted companies have picked up the slack but the
1.6% increase in number of units does not reconcile with the 74% increase in value of exports.
Tailpiece: Where are Tokelau Islands?
We are quite puzzled by the destination of India’s exports of passenger cars. Exports to several
small countries (in terms of size of car market) such as Algeria (US$576 mn), Chile (US$234 mn),
Indonesia (US$640 mn), Swaziland (US$58 mn) and Tokelau Islands (US$15 mn) have jumped
several fold in FY2011 while exports to the traditional markets of Europe declined due to the
removal of the scrappage/incentive scheme introduced by various countries in Europe in
CY2008/CY2009 to boost consumption of cars.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Strategy
India Exports
Exploring the money trail, Part 2. We discuss a few points raised by investors as
plausible explanations for the observed gaps between official data on exports and our
bottom-up analysis of exports of companies. Investors and other observers have offered
explanations such as—(1) re-exports of imported materials, (2) difference between fob
and cif data, (3) exports by small unlisted entities, among others. However, publicly
available data does not seem to support the same.
Our observations are based on official data and data of exports of companies
Investors desirous of doing more research into India’s exports and imports can visit the Export
Import Data Section on the website of the Department of Commerce under the Ministry of
Industry and Commerce. The data is quite extensive and covers exports and imports of 99
categories (broken down further into several levels of sub-categories) and is available by countries.
Exports of copper cannot be explained by domestic production or imports of copper
As highlighted in our October 10 report titled Exploring the money trail, exports of copper went
up sharply in FY2011 to US$8.1 bn from US$1.8 bn with a bulk of the increase coming from
copper cathodes (US$7 bn in FY2011 compared to US$1.2 bn in FY2010). (1) Exports of the three
copper producers increased by less than US$0.5 bn and (2) imports of copper (all types) increased
by 60% to US$1.9 bn in FY2011; imports of copper cathodes declined by 12% to US$29 mn.
Data on passenger cars is not supported by data of industry association
As per Government data on exports, exports (value) of passenger cars increased by 74% to
US$5.5 bn in FY2011 from US$3.2 bn in FY2010. As per data of Society of Indian Automobile
Manufacturers (SIAM), exports of cars (units) increased by 1.6% to 453,479 units in FY2011 from
446,145 units in FY2010. We had noted the sharp decline in exports of Hyundai and Maruti in
FY2011 in our October 10 report. Other unlisted companies have picked up the slack but the
1.6% increase in number of units does not reconcile with the 74% increase in value of exports.
Tailpiece: Where are Tokelau Islands?
We are quite puzzled by the destination of India’s exports of passenger cars. Exports to several
small countries (in terms of size of car market) such as Algeria (US$576 mn), Chile (US$234 mn),
Indonesia (US$640 mn), Swaziland (US$58 mn) and Tokelau Islands (US$15 mn) have jumped
several fold in FY2011 while exports to the traditional markets of Europe declined due to the
removal of the scrappage/incentive scheme introduced by various countries in Europe in
CY2008/CY2009 to boost consumption of cars.
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