11 November 2011

IRB, Ceat, INTL : 2QFY2012 results review: Angel Broking,

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IRB
For 2QFY2012, IRB Infra reported a strong set of numbers, in-line with our
estimates. The company’s top line witnessed robust growth of 50.1% to `735.9cr
(`490.3cr), marginally ahead of our estimate of `687.0cr. On the EBITDAM front,
margin came at 43.7% (48.2%), slightly lower than our estimate of 45.2%. Interest
cost came in at `141.1cr (`69.3cr), registering a jump of 103.7%/20.2% on a
yoy/qoq basis. At the earnings front as well, IRB Infra reported healthy growth of
22.1% to `147.6cr (`120.9cr) and 11.1% to `110.1cr (`99.1cr) on a yoy basis at
the PBT and PAT levels, respectively, against our estimate of `147.1cr and
`107.3cr for PBT and PAT, respectively.
Our valuation of `193/share for the consolidated business uses NPV/EV/EBITDAbased
valuation for BOT assets and the C&EPC arm, respectively. We factor in
CoE of 14% and a traffic growth rate of 5/6/7% for its BOT assets. We maintain
our view on the stock with a target price of `193.


ITNL
ITNL reported a good set of numbers for 2QFY2012. Revenue for the quarter
came in at `1,256cr (`883cr), registering 42.1% yoy growth, primarily due to
higher revenue of the C&EPC segment. On a sequential basis as well, ITNL’s
revenue grew by 14.9%. EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 28.4% vs. 29.6%
in 2QFY2011, down 120bp, mainly on account of increased contribution from the
relatively low-margin C&EPC segment, as expected. ITNL’s interest cost during the
quarter grew by 72.3%/18.8% yoy/qoq to `169.4cr (`98.3cr). The bottom line
witnessed modest 8.2% yoy growth to `116.2cr (`107.5cr), owing to lower
EBITDAM and higher interest cost during the quarter.
We have valued ITNL on an SOTP basis by assigning 6x EV/EBITDA to its
standalone business and have valued its investments on DCF/Mcap/BV basis
on FY2013E. We continue to maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target
price of `260/share, implying an upside of 27.9% from current levels.


Ceat
Ceat reported strong operating performance for 2QFY2012; however the bottom
line was severely impacted on account of high interest and depreciation expense
due to commissioning of the new facility at Halol. Ceat returned back to
profitability in 2QFY2012 after reporting losses at the operating as well as bottomline
front in 1QFY2012.
Net sales grew strongly by 32.7% yoy (3.7% qoq) to `1,118cr on account of
availability of additional capacity at Halol plant and average price hike of ~10%
in 1QFY2012. Top-line growth also benefited from a 21.4% yoy increase in other
operating income. Operating margin improved by 27bp yoy to 5.5%, largely due
to ramp-up at Halol facility and price increases carried out in 1QFY2012. While
raw-material cost as a percentage of sales increased by 223bp yoy, the decline in
staff cost and other expenditure as a percentage of sales by 129bp and 132bp
yoy, respectively, helped Ceat maintain its margins. Net profit, however, fell
sharply by 63.3% yoy to `6cr due to a significant increase in depreciation (114%
yoy) and interest expense (170% yoy).
We expect the company to report continuous improvement in its operating
performance, led by improving utilization at Halol plant and a gradual decline in
raw-material prices. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock; however our target
price is under review.

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