17 November 2011

Freight Forward - Nov 2011 ::ICICI Securities

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S h i p p i n g   M o n t h l y   R e p o r t   –   N o v e m b e r   2 0 1 1
• The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 3% to 1965 in October
2011 due to a 0.4%, 12%, and 2% rise in Capesize, Panamax and
Supramax index, respectively. Freight rates rose in the first half of
October for Capesize vessels as Australian iron ore exports
remained at high levels to substitute lower exports from India to
China owing to the monsoon season. We expect freight rates for
Capesize to remain soft while  panamax vessel freight rates will
firm up with the gradual up-tick in Indian iron ore exports to China
• The Dirty Tanker Index rose by 11% to 773 while the Clean Tanker
Index remained flat with a marginal increase from 725 to 728 level
in October 2011. VLCC freight rates remained in the negative
territory while day rates for Suezmax and Aframax rose by 376%
and 368%, albeit on an abnormally low base
• LPG freight rates displayed a weak trend in October 2011 with
rates for larger vessels declining sharply. VLGCs day rates
registered a decline of 5% while LGC rates declined by 6%. MGC
freight rates declined in the range of 2-3%
• Utilisation levels for drill ships, semi-subs and jack-ups displayed a
mixed trend. Utilisation levels for drill ships, semi-subs and jackup rigs was reported at 82%, 87% and 81% in October 2011 as
against 82%, 88% and 80% in September 2011.
Outlook
Dry bulkers
In the near term, dry bulk freight rates are expected to remain weak owing
to expected weakness in rates of Capesize vessels owing to lower
demand due to high level of Chinese iron ore inventory. Over the longer
term,  excess  supply  of  tonnage  would  keep  tabs  on  the  up  move  in  the
freight rates.
Tankers
Crude oil tanker freight rates are expected to remain subdued owing to
the oversupply of tonnage, which would handicap the market. Even if
some demand emerges in the near term, the tonnage available is likely to
weigh on the charter rates and keep them subdued. Some positive
momentum is likely for VLCCs while Suezmax day rates are expected to
remain rangebound with a positive bias.
LPG carriers
LPG freight rates are expected to remain weak particularly for VLGC and
LGC while MGC freight rates are expected to remain flattish. Smaller
vessels could face downward pressure in freight rates owing to a large
proportion of vessels being added to the global fleet in 2011.
Offshore vessels
Utilisation levels for offshore vessels are expected to increase while
charter rates are expected to remain range-bound with a positive bias in
November 2011. High capex spend by major global oil exploration/drilling
companies is likely to lead to higher utilisation levels for offshore vessels.

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