20 November 2011

Buy Jet Airways; Target :Rs 330 :: ICICI Securities,

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W o r s t   e v e r   q u a r t e r …
Jet Airways (JAL) reported consolidated revenues of | 3,684.5 crore (up
7.0% YoY, down 7.2% QoQ) that were lower than our estimated revenues
of | 3,863.0 crore due to a higher-than-expected drop in yields in the
domestic and LCC segment (JetLite). International operations, that
accounted for 57% of total revenues, performed well with revenues in
this segment recording growth of 11.6% YoY and positive EBITDA of |
184.6 crore DUE to balanced demand supply mix. On the cost front, fuel
costs and employee costs continued to remain higher and rose sharply
by 51% and 23% YoY, respectively. As a result, the company reported a
net operating loss of | 148 crore. Its loss for the quarter further widened
to | 815 crore due to incurring of forex loss to the tune of | 276 crore.


ƒ Lower yields and higher fuel costs dent margins
During the quarter, yields for the domestic segment, especially low
cost segment (LCC), remained under pressure partly due to the
competitive pricing strategy adopted by major competitors and
partly due to increase in the supply (ASKM). As a result, Jet
(domestic) and JetLite’s revenue per pax declined 4% and 15% YoY,
respectively. Fuel prices for the quarter rose over 35% YoY and with
18% increase in the departures, fuel cost for the quarter went up
over 51% YoY.
V a l u a t i o n s
We revised our revenue forecast downwards by 3% for FY12E taking into
account the current quarter’s dismal performance. However, we believe
the earnings would improve from next quarter onwards as the sector is
heading into the peak season with improved demand and limited fleet
supply. The BKC land deal and aircraft sale and leaseback transactions are
key things on the company’s radar to reduce its debt burden. Further, we
believe any positive policy reforms (like allowing FDI by foreign carriers,
reduction in sales tax, service tax, etc.) to revive the sector would
improve earnings visibility further,  going forward. However, weak rupee
remains a concern over the medium  term. Hence, we remain cautiously
positive on the stock with revised price target of | 330 (i.e. at 7.5x FY13E
EBITDA) and ‘BUY’ rating on the stock.

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