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Ambuja Cement
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Higher realizations boost EBITDA
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HOLD
CMP: Rs157 Target Price: Rs165
n EBITDA of Rs3.1bn (+10% yoy) above estimates led by higher Cement realizations (Rs3848/t , +7% yoy, -11% qoq). Higher other income boost above est APAT (Rs1.9bn,+13% yoy)
n Though P&F costs at Rs1055/t was higher than est, tight control on fixed costs restricted cost pressures - Staff costs grew just 4.3% yoy while other expenses remained flat.
n Momentum in cement price hikes (Oct-11 prices already up Rs18-20/bag from Q3CY11 avg) lead to higher CY11 exit realizations driving 2.8% upgrade in CY12E EPS
n Introduce CY13 EPS at Rs11.2. Recent decline in petcoke & sharp cement price hikes to improve ACL’s margins. Upgrade to Hold -revise TP to Rs165 by rolling over to CY13E numbers
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