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September 2011 – GSM net subscriber addition
Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) reported GSM subscriber data
for September 2011, which was showing a declining trend since March 2011,
grew in September 2011. Net subscriber addition number stood at 6.5mn, up
22% mom, taking the total GSM subscriber base to 618.3mn in September
2011. Even though the mom declining trend in subscriber net addition was
altered, GSM subscriber net addition data was weak across all telecom
operators (except BSNL and Uninor).
Weakness across the board: In September 2011, net addition run rate on
mom basis for all operators (except BSNL and Uninor) dropped off again.
Amongst incumbents, Bharti and Vodafone reported a significant decline in net
subscriber addition numbers, with net addition numbers dropping to merely
0.9mn and 0.8mn, down 18.6% and 25.1% mom, respectively, which led to a
decline in their subscriber market share by 20bp and 10bp to 27.9% and
23.5%, respectively. Idea, which bucked the declining trend in subscriber net
addition in August 2011, reported a 25.4% mom decline in subscriber net
additions in September 2011 to 1.7mn. BSNL emerged as the dark horse by
reporting a whopping 16.1% mom jump in subscriber net additions to 0.5mn.
Aircel reported almost flat mom subscriber net additions at 0.6mn.
Among new operators, Videocon reported a net decline of 0.1mn subscribers
in its subscriber base. Net subscriber addition of S Tel and Loop Mobile
declined by 193.0% and 21.7% mom, as these operators added merely
0.1mn and 0.01mn subscribers, respectively. Unlike other players, Uninor
reported a whopping 448% mom jump in subscriber net addition by adding
1.9mn subscribers, which led to a 30bp qoq increase in its subscriber market
share to 4.8%.
Circle-wise highlights: In September 2011, net addition run rate of all circles
(except A circle) improved, the highest being for B circle, which reported
addition of 3.2mn subscribers, up 60.7% mom from 2.0mn in August 2011.
This led to an increase in net subscriber addition market share of B circle to
48.7% from 37.0%. For September 2011, in the Metro circle, 0.6mn
subscribers were added, up 44.3% mom, with Aircel reporting the highest net
addition of 0.16mn subscribers, followed by Idea, Vodafone and Bharti, which
reported 0.15mn, 0.13mn and 0.09mn net subscriber additions, respectively.
Subscriber addition run rate of A circle declined by 16.4% mom to 1.9mn as
against 2.3mn in August 2011. Subscriber addition in C circle stood at 0.8mn
from 0.6mn in August 2011, up 30.2% mom.
For Bharti and Idea, such a decline in net subscriber additions was along
expected lines; thus, our estimates remain unchanged. The driving force for
the overall sector is the increase in tariff rates as well as increasing use of
value-added services, which will lead to higher ARPU for all players, thereby
aiding profitability. Bharti continues to be a better bet due to its low-cost
integrated model (owned tower infrastructure), potential opportunity to scale
up in Africa, established leadership in revenue and subscriber market
share and relatively better KPIs. However, overall we remain Neutral on the
telecom sector.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
September 2011 – GSM net subscriber addition
Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) reported GSM subscriber data
for September 2011, which was showing a declining trend since March 2011,
grew in September 2011. Net subscriber addition number stood at 6.5mn, up
22% mom, taking the total GSM subscriber base to 618.3mn in September
2011. Even though the mom declining trend in subscriber net addition was
altered, GSM subscriber net addition data was weak across all telecom
operators (except BSNL and Uninor).
Weakness across the board: In September 2011, net addition run rate on
mom basis for all operators (except BSNL and Uninor) dropped off again.
Amongst incumbents, Bharti and Vodafone reported a significant decline in net
subscriber addition numbers, with net addition numbers dropping to merely
0.9mn and 0.8mn, down 18.6% and 25.1% mom, respectively, which led to a
decline in their subscriber market share by 20bp and 10bp to 27.9% and
23.5%, respectively. Idea, which bucked the declining trend in subscriber net
addition in August 2011, reported a 25.4% mom decline in subscriber net
additions in September 2011 to 1.7mn. BSNL emerged as the dark horse by
reporting a whopping 16.1% mom jump in subscriber net additions to 0.5mn.
Aircel reported almost flat mom subscriber net additions at 0.6mn.
Among new operators, Videocon reported a net decline of 0.1mn subscribers
in its subscriber base. Net subscriber addition of S Tel and Loop Mobile
declined by 193.0% and 21.7% mom, as these operators added merely
0.1mn and 0.01mn subscribers, respectively. Unlike other players, Uninor
reported a whopping 448% mom jump in subscriber net addition by adding
1.9mn subscribers, which led to a 30bp qoq increase in its subscriber market
share to 4.8%.
Circle-wise highlights: In September 2011, net addition run rate of all circles
(except A circle) improved, the highest being for B circle, which reported
addition of 3.2mn subscribers, up 60.7% mom from 2.0mn in August 2011.
This led to an increase in net subscriber addition market share of B circle to
48.7% from 37.0%. For September 2011, in the Metro circle, 0.6mn
subscribers were added, up 44.3% mom, with Aircel reporting the highest net
addition of 0.16mn subscribers, followed by Idea, Vodafone and Bharti, which
reported 0.15mn, 0.13mn and 0.09mn net subscriber additions, respectively.
Subscriber addition run rate of A circle declined by 16.4% mom to 1.9mn as
against 2.3mn in August 2011. Subscriber addition in C circle stood at 0.8mn
from 0.6mn in August 2011, up 30.2% mom.
For Bharti and Idea, such a decline in net subscriber additions was along
expected lines; thus, our estimates remain unchanged. The driving force for
the overall sector is the increase in tariff rates as well as increasing use of
value-added services, which will lead to higher ARPU for all players, thereby
aiding profitability. Bharti continues to be a better bet due to its low-cost
integrated model (owned tower infrastructure), potential opportunity to scale
up in Africa, established leadership in revenue and subscriber market
share and relatively better KPIs. However, overall we remain Neutral on the
telecom sector.
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