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For August 2011, the US Rx increased 5.3% y-y. Market share in Aricept
and Valtrex stood at 31% and 28%, respectively. There are indications of
a potential resolution of FDA/DOJ issues and launch of generic Lipitor in
Nov 2011. Uncertainty remains on potential upside for the Lipitor
opportunity as settlement may involve payment of damages. We value
the Lipitor exclusivity at INR60/sh and build in a penalty of INR30/sh in
our valuation.
Sun Pharma + Taro
Prescriptions rose 11.5% y-y. Sun has not been able to garner
meaningful market share in generic Femara (USD650mn). For the week
ended 23 Sep, Sun had a 13% share in generic Uroxatral (USD200mn).
Dr. Reddy’s
Dr Reddy’s (DRRD) US TRx grew 33.2% y-y. Prograf market share grew
to 18.1% and Prevacid market share is 22.4%. Amongst the recent
launches, DRRD has 17.8% and 7.4% market share in generic Levaquin
(USD1.5bn) and generic Arixtra (USD340mn), respectively. We note that
the performance of Arixtra is a negative surprise as we were expecting
30-40% market share. During the month, DRRD received tentative
approval for generic Zometa (USD650mn). Key near-term product
opportunities: Zyprexa, Geodon, Seroquel, Prevacid OTC.
Lupin
Overall, Rx recorded 14.9% y-y growth for August 2011; Suprax TRx
grew at 10% y-y while Antara grew 2% y-y. LPC garnered 41% market
share in generic Levaquin (USD1.5bn) and received its first OC approval
for generic Nor QD (USD52mn) and tentative approval on generic Avapro
(USD500mn), which we expect to be launched in Sep 2013. Key nearterm
opportunities: Fortamet, OCs, Geodon.
Zydus Cadila
CDH’s US prescription grew 42.3% y-y in August 2011. CDH filed a Para
IV ANDA with Asacol HD (USD150mn) as the reference-listed drug. We
believe CDH may be FTF on the product. The company has not been
sued yet. As the patent challenged is a formulation patent, we believe the
generic challenge may prevail.
Glenmark
Overall prescriptions grew 26% y-y. Traction for older products and recent
launches like Ondansetron, omeprazole and Mupirocin fueled growth. A
district court ruled against Glenmark in Tarka (USD50mn) litigation. The
court upheld the ‘244 patent and granted supplemental damages to Abbott
over and above the USD16mn already granted by the jury. We estimate
supplemental damages to be a fraction of USD16mn.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
For August 2011, the US Rx increased 5.3% y-y. Market share in Aricept
and Valtrex stood at 31% and 28%, respectively. There are indications of
a potential resolution of FDA/DOJ issues and launch of generic Lipitor in
Nov 2011. Uncertainty remains on potential upside for the Lipitor
opportunity as settlement may involve payment of damages. We value
the Lipitor exclusivity at INR60/sh and build in a penalty of INR30/sh in
our valuation.
Sun Pharma + Taro
Prescriptions rose 11.5% y-y. Sun has not been able to garner
meaningful market share in generic Femara (USD650mn). For the week
ended 23 Sep, Sun had a 13% share in generic Uroxatral (USD200mn).
Dr. Reddy’s
Dr Reddy’s (DRRD) US TRx grew 33.2% y-y. Prograf market share grew
to 18.1% and Prevacid market share is 22.4%. Amongst the recent
launches, DRRD has 17.8% and 7.4% market share in generic Levaquin
(USD1.5bn) and generic Arixtra (USD340mn), respectively. We note that
the performance of Arixtra is a negative surprise as we were expecting
30-40% market share. During the month, DRRD received tentative
approval for generic Zometa (USD650mn). Key near-term product
opportunities: Zyprexa, Geodon, Seroquel, Prevacid OTC.
Lupin
Overall, Rx recorded 14.9% y-y growth for August 2011; Suprax TRx
grew at 10% y-y while Antara grew 2% y-y. LPC garnered 41% market
share in generic Levaquin (USD1.5bn) and received its first OC approval
for generic Nor QD (USD52mn) and tentative approval on generic Avapro
(USD500mn), which we expect to be launched in Sep 2013. Key nearterm
opportunities: Fortamet, OCs, Geodon.
Zydus Cadila
CDH’s US prescription grew 42.3% y-y in August 2011. CDH filed a Para
IV ANDA with Asacol HD (USD150mn) as the reference-listed drug. We
believe CDH may be FTF on the product. The company has not been
sued yet. As the patent challenged is a formulation patent, we believe the
generic challenge may prevail.
Glenmark
Overall prescriptions grew 26% y-y. Traction for older products and recent
launches like Ondansetron, omeprazole and Mupirocin fueled growth. A
district court ruled against Glenmark in Tarka (USD50mn) litigation. The
court upheld the ‘244 patent and granted supplemental damages to Abbott
over and above the USD16mn already granted by the jury. We estimate
supplemental damages to be a fraction of USD16mn.
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