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UBS Investment Research
Jindal Steel & Power
R isks outweigh strong fundamentals [EXTRACT]
Risks not fully priced in, initiate with an anti-consensus Sell rating
We initiate coverage of Jindal Steel & Power (JSPL) with a Sell rating and price
target of Rs470. We think the operational synergy derived from JSPL’s integrated
business model is a key strength. But, despite a 37.5% share price correction YTD,
we believe the risk/reward profile is unfavourable as 1) JSPL’s capacity expansion
faces significant execution challenges, and 2) its valuation looks stretched.
Power: execution risk in capacity additions, significant delays already
Although JSPL’s subsidiary, Jindal Power, operates a very profitable (operating
margins around 60%) 1,000MW captive-coal-based power plant, there is a risk of
significant delays to most of its new projects: 1) Tamnar II (2,400MW) has already
been delayed more than 12 months and the state government has not yet issued the
Consent to Establish (approval); 2) Dumka and Godda (1,320MW each) are
awaiting state government approval to start construction; and 3) the hydro projects
are scheduled to be completed only after 2017.
Steel: risk in execution and regulatory uncertainty
Although JSPL has an integrated steel business model with steel capacity of 3mtpa,
captive thermal coal, and partial integration on iron ore (3mtpa captive), we believe
there are two key risks for its steel business: 1) delays in the 2mtpa direct reduced
iron expansion in Angul; and 2) regulatory overhang on mining operations in India.
Valuation: sum-of-the-parts-based price target of Rs470
We derive our price target from a sum-of-the-parts valuation (power contributes
Rs285 and steel Rs189). We use EV/EBITDA to value the company’s domestic
steel business and DCF for its power business. We believe a continuing decline in
ROCE (from 41% in FY10 to 21% in FY14E) and ROE (from 45% in FY10 to
24% in FY14E) means a premium valuation is unwarranted.
Investment Thesis
Jindal Steel and Power (JSPL) is one of the largest steel and power companies
in India. Its key businesses are: 1) steel (3mtpa); 2) iron ore and coal mining
(15mtpa); 3) power generation (1,783MW); 4) hot briquetted iron (1.5mtpa),
and, 5) pellet plant (5mtpa). Its 96.43%-owned subsidiary, power generation
utility Jindal Power, has coal-based operational capacity of 1,000MW and
11,140MW under implementation (thermal 5,040MW and hydro 6,100MW).
Jindal Power’s 1,000MW plant has captive coal and 2,640MW under
implementation projects have captive coal.
Jindal Power faces substantial execution risk. It has encountered significant
delays in its expansion projects: 1) Tamnar II (2,400MW) was initially held
up for almost 12 months due to delays in receiving environmental clearance
from the Ministry of Environment and Forests and is still awaiting Consent to
Establish (CTE) from the state government; 2) both Dumka and Godda
(1,320MW each) have yet to receive state government clearances to start
construction; and 3) hydro projects are back-ended and are not due to become
operational until at least 2018. After the recent earthquake in Sikkim, most of
the hydro projects in the north east could face delays in commissioning.
JSPL has an integrated steel business model with steel capacity of 3mtpa
located at Raigarh, Chhattisgarh and captive thermal coal and partial
integration on iron ore (3mt captive). However, we believe it faces two key
risks: 1) delays in the 2mtpa direct reduced iron (DRI) expansion in Angul—
the company is guiding for commissioning by March 2012, but we believe the
plant commissioning could be delayed 3-6 months—and full production
benefits are only likely from FY14; and 2) mining operations in India are
facing increasing difficulty due to heightened regulatory focus due to
environmental concerns (there has been a recent mining ban in Karnataka and
ongoing investigations in Goa, according to media reports). Historically,
JSPL’s steel business has been earning superior margins (versus the industry)
due to captive resources—EBITDA margins/ROEs (more than 37%/40% in
the past five years). JSPL also has 1) 1.5mtpa gas-based sponge-iron capacity
in Oman—Shadeed Iron & Steel, which it acquired in May 2010 at an
enterprise value of US$464m, and 2) mining assets (coal and iron ore) in
Indonesia, Bolivia, South Africa and Australia.
We derive our price target of Rs470 from a SOPT methodology. For power
business (Rs285/share), we use plant-by-plant DCF for thermal capacities of
6,040MW, we value hydro projects at 1x equity invested and non-captive
power business in the standalone at 1.0x P/BV. We are not conservative in our
execution estimates or operational parameters for the power business. We
value the domestic steel business (Rs176/share) at 6.5x EV/EBITDA (in line
with our valuation for Steel Authority of India) on normalised FY12-FY13E
EBITDA, and Shadeed Iron & Steel (Oman) (Rs13/share) at 8x PE on
normalised FY13E PAT. We initiate coverage of JSPL with an anti-consensus
Sell rating. We believe the continuous decline in ROCE (from 41% in FY10
to 21% in FY14E) and ROE (from 45% in FY10 to 24% in FY14E) means a
premium valuation is unwarranted.
Key catalysts
Execution risk in power business
Our capacity addition estimates are in line with management guidance
(1,200MW in FY14 and 3,840MW in FY15). As we highlighted, most of the
projects have experienced significant delays compared with initial estimates and
further delays in capacity addition could result in risk to our estimates.
Decline in merchant tariffs
Jindal Power’s entire operational capacity operates on a merchant basis. This
means profitability is exposed to fluctuations in short-term rates. Jindal Power’s
PAT declined 19% YoY in Q1 FY12, mainly due to lower realisations on a per
unit basis. If this trend continues, it is likely to be negative for the stock.
Delays in Angul expansion
JSPL has guided that the 2mtpa DRI greenfield expansion in Angul; Orissa will
be commissioned by March 2012. Although the company has all approvals and
land acquired for the project, we believe a three to six month delay in
commissioning is likely in such large-scale greenfield expansion. There have
been similar delays in the commissioning of similar sized expansions in India
(such as Tata Steel’s 2.7mt brownfield expansion in Jamshedpur, the
commissioning of which was recently delayed by a quarter). We believe full
production benefits from this commissioning are likely to come only from FY14.
Mining industry in India under increased scrutiny
Although JSPL has not been named in any mining controversy, the industry in
general in India is under regulatory/judicial scrutiny due to environment/illegal
mining concerns. The recent iron ore mining ban in Karnataka is a concern, as a
blanket mining ban has been imposed on all mining companies (regardless of
whether they were involved in illegal mining/flouting environmental concerns).
Recent media reports indicate ongoing investigations into mining operations in
Goa/Odisha; a blanket mining ban covering any of JSPL’s areas of operations
would be a risk factor for the company, as captive raw materials is one of its
greatest competitive advantages.
Third-party mine negotiations
JSPL only has 3mtpa captive iron ore, and buys the balance (around 6mt) from
local miners under long-term supply agreements at prices significantly below
market price. We believe price negotiations with third party miners could be a
risk—in the case of Sesa Goa in 2010, contracts with third party mines were not
renewed. We are not factoring this into our estimates, but if such a scenario
emerges, iron ore costs for JSPL could rise, impacting earnings forecasts.
Risks
Key risks to our rating are: 1) faster-than-expected execution; 2) a strong pick
up in merchant tariffs; 3) a strong recovery in steel prices driven by demand
recovery; and 4) better-than-expected steel demand growth in India. Key
downside risks to the business are: 1) delay in execution; 2) lower-than-expected
tariffs; 3) adverse change in regulation; 4) lower-than-expected plant load
factors (PLF); 5) the availability of quality management and personnel; and 6)
delay in attaining environmental/other clearances for the mines.
Valuation and basis for our price target
We derive our R470 price target for JSPL from a sum-of-the-parts valuation
(power contributes Rs285 and steel Rs189). We value the steel business based
on an EV/EBITDA multiple and power business using DCF methodology. We
value the domestic steel business at 6.5x EV/EBITDA (in line with our
valuation for Steel Authority of India) on normalised FY12-13E EBITDA
(contributes Rs176/share) and Shadeed Iron & Steel (Oman) at 8x PE on
normalised FY13E PAT (contributes Rs13/share).
UBS versus consensus
Of the 25 other brokerages that cover JSPL, 23 (according to Bloomberg) have
Buy or Neutral ratings on the stock. We think other analysts are positive on
JSPL because they believe its backward integrated business model results in
operational synergies vis-à-vis peers and strong expansion plans (globally) that
support margins. However, we initiate coverage of the stock with an anticonsensus
Sell rating, as we believe that there are significant risks, such as
potential execution delays.
Table 2: Consensus ratings
Rating Number of ratings
Buy 16
Neutral 7
Sell 2
Note: Data as at 5 October 2011.
Source: Bloomberg
Our FY12/FY13 EPS estimates are 13.7%/16.1% below consensus. We think
the main reason our EPS (and hence margin) estimates are lower than consensus
is because other analysts have not updated their numbers for power, in terms of
per unit realisation.
Execution—We assume capacity additions of 1200MW and 3840MW in FY14
and FY15, respectively. If commissioning is six months later than our
assumption, our analysis suggests power business EPS for FY12E/13/14E would
decline 0%/0%/8% and our valuation of the power business would decline 6%.
Overall, the impact on EPS for FY12E/13/14E would be 0%/0%/3% and our
valuation would decline 3%, according to our analysis.
Plant load factor (PLF)—We assume a PLF of 95% for FY12-14 and after that
90% for Tamnar I; and 90% for Tamnar II, Godda and Dumka. Our analysis
suggests that if the PLF was 5% lower than our assumption, the power business
EPS for FY12E/13/14E would decline 6%/5%/5% and our power business
valuation would decline 8%. Overall, the impact on EPS for FY12E/13/14E
would be 3%/2%/2% and our valuation would decline 4%, according to our
analysis.
Steel
Realisation—We forecast a blended steel realisation of US$1,104/US$966 for
FY13/14. Our analysis suggests a 10% decline in steel prices from our current
assumptions would lower the steel business PAT by around 25% for
FY13/FY14.
Risk analysis
The key risks to our Sell rating are as follows:
Faster-than-expected execution
JSPL has a strong project pipeline in both its core steel and power businesses.
Our assumptions are in line with management guidance for the power business
and hence, not unnecessarily conservative. However, there is upside risk if the
execution is faster than our expectation.
Strong pick-up in merchant tariffs
Our merchant tariff assumptions are Rs4.0/unit and Rs3.5/unit for FY12 and
FY13, respectively. A turnaround in the merchant tariff market and rate increase
should be positive for the company and is an upside risk.
Steel
A strong recovery in steel prices driven by a demand recovery could be a key
risk for our steel division valuation. Other risks include 1) better-than-expected
steel demand growth in India (UBS’s estimate for FY12 India steel demand
growth is 5%), and 2) faster-than-expected commissioning of the Angul DRI
project.
Key downside risks
Delay in the project implementation plan
Any further delays in JSPL’s project implementation plans could undermine our
assumptions and pose a downside risk to our estimates.
Adverse regulatory intervention
We believe that any regulatory intervention—such as delays in clearances for
expansion, changes in regulations for the assignment of coal blocks and coal
linkages, or changes in regulations for merchant tariffs—pose a threat to our
estimates.
Lower-than-expected power tariffs
Although we think our assumptions of merchant tariffs are reasonable, we
believe any further decline in merchant tariffs could impact the company.
Lower-than-expected PLFs
We assume 95% for FY12-14 and 90% after that for Tamnar I; and 90% for
Tamnar II, Godda and Dumka. Lower PLFs than we assume could be a risk.
Competition
Utilities (especially private-sector companies) are planning substantial capacity
additions in the next five to seven years, and if executed well, this could cause
oversupply. However, we expect the deficit will continue for the next 10 years
or so because not all projects may be completed.
Lack of quality management and personnel
We believe that with significant capacity addition plans in the country, a lack of
quality management and personnel could be a risk.
Jindal Steel & Power
Jindal Steel and Power, an integrated steel producer, is one of India's major steel
and power producer, with a significant presence in mining, power generation
and infrastructure. Its products include a range of long products and flat
products, catering to the various needs in the steel market.
Statement of Risk
Key risks to our rating include, 1) faster than expected execution, 2) Strong pick
up in merchant tariffs, and, 3) Strong recovery in steel prices driven by western
demand recovery, 4) Better than expected steel demand growth in India. Key
downside risks to the business are, 1) delay in the execution, 2) lower than
expected tariffs, 3) adverse change in regulations, 4) lower than expected PLFs,
and, 5) availability of quality management and personnel, 6) delay in attaining
environmental/other clearances for the mines.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
UBS Investment Research
Jindal Steel & Power
R isks outweigh strong fundamentals [EXTRACT]
Risks not fully priced in, initiate with an anti-consensus Sell rating
We initiate coverage of Jindal Steel & Power (JSPL) with a Sell rating and price
target of Rs470. We think the operational synergy derived from JSPL’s integrated
business model is a key strength. But, despite a 37.5% share price correction YTD,
we believe the risk/reward profile is unfavourable as 1) JSPL’s capacity expansion
faces significant execution challenges, and 2) its valuation looks stretched.
Power: execution risk in capacity additions, significant delays already
Although JSPL’s subsidiary, Jindal Power, operates a very profitable (operating
margins around 60%) 1,000MW captive-coal-based power plant, there is a risk of
significant delays to most of its new projects: 1) Tamnar II (2,400MW) has already
been delayed more than 12 months and the state government has not yet issued the
Consent to Establish (approval); 2) Dumka and Godda (1,320MW each) are
awaiting state government approval to start construction; and 3) the hydro projects
are scheduled to be completed only after 2017.
Steel: risk in execution and regulatory uncertainty
Although JSPL has an integrated steel business model with steel capacity of 3mtpa,
captive thermal coal, and partial integration on iron ore (3mtpa captive), we believe
there are two key risks for its steel business: 1) delays in the 2mtpa direct reduced
iron expansion in Angul; and 2) regulatory overhang on mining operations in India.
Valuation: sum-of-the-parts-based price target of Rs470
We derive our price target from a sum-of-the-parts valuation (power contributes
Rs285 and steel Rs189). We use EV/EBITDA to value the company’s domestic
steel business and DCF for its power business. We believe a continuing decline in
ROCE (from 41% in FY10 to 21% in FY14E) and ROE (from 45% in FY10 to
24% in FY14E) means a premium valuation is unwarranted.
Investment Thesis
Jindal Steel and Power (JSPL) is one of the largest steel and power companies
in India. Its key businesses are: 1) steel (3mtpa); 2) iron ore and coal mining
(15mtpa); 3) power generation (1,783MW); 4) hot briquetted iron (1.5mtpa),
and, 5) pellet plant (5mtpa). Its 96.43%-owned subsidiary, power generation
utility Jindal Power, has coal-based operational capacity of 1,000MW and
11,140MW under implementation (thermal 5,040MW and hydro 6,100MW).
Jindal Power’s 1,000MW plant has captive coal and 2,640MW under
implementation projects have captive coal.
Jindal Power faces substantial execution risk. It has encountered significant
delays in its expansion projects: 1) Tamnar II (2,400MW) was initially held
up for almost 12 months due to delays in receiving environmental clearance
from the Ministry of Environment and Forests and is still awaiting Consent to
Establish (CTE) from the state government; 2) both Dumka and Godda
(1,320MW each) have yet to receive state government clearances to start
construction; and 3) hydro projects are back-ended and are not due to become
operational until at least 2018. After the recent earthquake in Sikkim, most of
the hydro projects in the north east could face delays in commissioning.
JSPL has an integrated steel business model with steel capacity of 3mtpa
located at Raigarh, Chhattisgarh and captive thermal coal and partial
integration on iron ore (3mt captive). However, we believe it faces two key
risks: 1) delays in the 2mtpa direct reduced iron (DRI) expansion in Angul—
the company is guiding for commissioning by March 2012, but we believe the
plant commissioning could be delayed 3-6 months—and full production
benefits are only likely from FY14; and 2) mining operations in India are
facing increasing difficulty due to heightened regulatory focus due to
environmental concerns (there has been a recent mining ban in Karnataka and
ongoing investigations in Goa, according to media reports). Historically,
JSPL’s steel business has been earning superior margins (versus the industry)
due to captive resources—EBITDA margins/ROEs (more than 37%/40% in
the past five years). JSPL also has 1) 1.5mtpa gas-based sponge-iron capacity
in Oman—Shadeed Iron & Steel, which it acquired in May 2010 at an
enterprise value of US$464m, and 2) mining assets (coal and iron ore) in
Indonesia, Bolivia, South Africa and Australia.
We derive our price target of Rs470 from a SOPT methodology. For power
business (Rs285/share), we use plant-by-plant DCF for thermal capacities of
6,040MW, we value hydro projects at 1x equity invested and non-captive
power business in the standalone at 1.0x P/BV. We are not conservative in our
execution estimates or operational parameters for the power business. We
value the domestic steel business (Rs176/share) at 6.5x EV/EBITDA (in line
with our valuation for Steel Authority of India) on normalised FY12-FY13E
EBITDA, and Shadeed Iron & Steel (Oman) (Rs13/share) at 8x PE on
normalised FY13E PAT. We initiate coverage of JSPL with an anti-consensus
Sell rating. We believe the continuous decline in ROCE (from 41% in FY10
to 21% in FY14E) and ROE (from 45% in FY10 to 24% in FY14E) means a
premium valuation is unwarranted.
Key catalysts
Execution risk in power business
Our capacity addition estimates are in line with management guidance
(1,200MW in FY14 and 3,840MW in FY15). As we highlighted, most of the
projects have experienced significant delays compared with initial estimates and
further delays in capacity addition could result in risk to our estimates.
Decline in merchant tariffs
Jindal Power’s entire operational capacity operates on a merchant basis. This
means profitability is exposed to fluctuations in short-term rates. Jindal Power’s
PAT declined 19% YoY in Q1 FY12, mainly due to lower realisations on a per
unit basis. If this trend continues, it is likely to be negative for the stock.
Delays in Angul expansion
JSPL has guided that the 2mtpa DRI greenfield expansion in Angul; Orissa will
be commissioned by March 2012. Although the company has all approvals and
land acquired for the project, we believe a three to six month delay in
commissioning is likely in such large-scale greenfield expansion. There have
been similar delays in the commissioning of similar sized expansions in India
(such as Tata Steel’s 2.7mt brownfield expansion in Jamshedpur, the
commissioning of which was recently delayed by a quarter). We believe full
production benefits from this commissioning are likely to come only from FY14.
Mining industry in India under increased scrutiny
Although JSPL has not been named in any mining controversy, the industry in
general in India is under regulatory/judicial scrutiny due to environment/illegal
mining concerns. The recent iron ore mining ban in Karnataka is a concern, as a
blanket mining ban has been imposed on all mining companies (regardless of
whether they were involved in illegal mining/flouting environmental concerns).
Recent media reports indicate ongoing investigations into mining operations in
Goa/Odisha; a blanket mining ban covering any of JSPL’s areas of operations
would be a risk factor for the company, as captive raw materials is one of its
greatest competitive advantages.
Third-party mine negotiations
JSPL only has 3mtpa captive iron ore, and buys the balance (around 6mt) from
local miners under long-term supply agreements at prices significantly below
market price. We believe price negotiations with third party miners could be a
risk—in the case of Sesa Goa in 2010, contracts with third party mines were not
renewed. We are not factoring this into our estimates, but if such a scenario
emerges, iron ore costs for JSPL could rise, impacting earnings forecasts.
Risks
Key risks to our rating are: 1) faster-than-expected execution; 2) a strong pick
up in merchant tariffs; 3) a strong recovery in steel prices driven by demand
recovery; and 4) better-than-expected steel demand growth in India. Key
downside risks to the business are: 1) delay in execution; 2) lower-than-expected
tariffs; 3) adverse change in regulation; 4) lower-than-expected plant load
factors (PLF); 5) the availability of quality management and personnel; and 6)
delay in attaining environmental/other clearances for the mines.
Valuation and basis for our price target
We derive our R470 price target for JSPL from a sum-of-the-parts valuation
(power contributes Rs285 and steel Rs189). We value the steel business based
on an EV/EBITDA multiple and power business using DCF methodology. We
value the domestic steel business at 6.5x EV/EBITDA (in line with our
valuation for Steel Authority of India) on normalised FY12-13E EBITDA
(contributes Rs176/share) and Shadeed Iron & Steel (Oman) at 8x PE on
normalised FY13E PAT (contributes Rs13/share).
UBS versus consensus
Of the 25 other brokerages that cover JSPL, 23 (according to Bloomberg) have
Buy or Neutral ratings on the stock. We think other analysts are positive on
JSPL because they believe its backward integrated business model results in
operational synergies vis-à-vis peers and strong expansion plans (globally) that
support margins. However, we initiate coverage of the stock with an anticonsensus
Sell rating, as we believe that there are significant risks, such as
potential execution delays.
Table 2: Consensus ratings
Rating Number of ratings
Buy 16
Neutral 7
Sell 2
Note: Data as at 5 October 2011.
Source: Bloomberg
Our FY12/FY13 EPS estimates are 13.7%/16.1% below consensus. We think
the main reason our EPS (and hence margin) estimates are lower than consensus
is because other analysts have not updated their numbers for power, in terms of
per unit realisation.
Execution—We assume capacity additions of 1200MW and 3840MW in FY14
and FY15, respectively. If commissioning is six months later than our
assumption, our analysis suggests power business EPS for FY12E/13/14E would
decline 0%/0%/8% and our valuation of the power business would decline 6%.
Overall, the impact on EPS for FY12E/13/14E would be 0%/0%/3% and our
valuation would decline 3%, according to our analysis.
Plant load factor (PLF)—We assume a PLF of 95% for FY12-14 and after that
90% for Tamnar I; and 90% for Tamnar II, Godda and Dumka. Our analysis
suggests that if the PLF was 5% lower than our assumption, the power business
EPS for FY12E/13/14E would decline 6%/5%/5% and our power business
valuation would decline 8%. Overall, the impact on EPS for FY12E/13/14E
would be 3%/2%/2% and our valuation would decline 4%, according to our
analysis.
Steel
Realisation—We forecast a blended steel realisation of US$1,104/US$966 for
FY13/14. Our analysis suggests a 10% decline in steel prices from our current
assumptions would lower the steel business PAT by around 25% for
FY13/FY14.
Risk analysis
The key risks to our Sell rating are as follows:
Faster-than-expected execution
JSPL has a strong project pipeline in both its core steel and power businesses.
Our assumptions are in line with management guidance for the power business
and hence, not unnecessarily conservative. However, there is upside risk if the
execution is faster than our expectation.
Strong pick-up in merchant tariffs
Our merchant tariff assumptions are Rs4.0/unit and Rs3.5/unit for FY12 and
FY13, respectively. A turnaround in the merchant tariff market and rate increase
should be positive for the company and is an upside risk.
Steel
A strong recovery in steel prices driven by a demand recovery could be a key
risk for our steel division valuation. Other risks include 1) better-than-expected
steel demand growth in India (UBS’s estimate for FY12 India steel demand
growth is 5%), and 2) faster-than-expected commissioning of the Angul DRI
project.
Key downside risks
Delay in the project implementation plan
Any further delays in JSPL’s project implementation plans could undermine our
assumptions and pose a downside risk to our estimates.
Adverse regulatory intervention
We believe that any regulatory intervention—such as delays in clearances for
expansion, changes in regulations for the assignment of coal blocks and coal
linkages, or changes in regulations for merchant tariffs—pose a threat to our
estimates.
Lower-than-expected power tariffs
Although we think our assumptions of merchant tariffs are reasonable, we
believe any further decline in merchant tariffs could impact the company.
Lower-than-expected PLFs
We assume 95% for FY12-14 and 90% after that for Tamnar I; and 90% for
Tamnar II, Godda and Dumka. Lower PLFs than we assume could be a risk.
Competition
Utilities (especially private-sector companies) are planning substantial capacity
additions in the next five to seven years, and if executed well, this could cause
oversupply. However, we expect the deficit will continue for the next 10 years
or so because not all projects may be completed.
Lack of quality management and personnel
We believe that with significant capacity addition plans in the country, a lack of
quality management and personnel could be a risk.
Jindal Steel & Power
Jindal Steel and Power, an integrated steel producer, is one of India's major steel
and power producer, with a significant presence in mining, power generation
and infrastructure. Its products include a range of long products and flat
products, catering to the various needs in the steel market.
Statement of Risk
Key risks to our rating include, 1) faster than expected execution, 2) Strong pick
up in merchant tariffs, and, 3) Strong recovery in steel prices driven by western
demand recovery, 4) Better than expected steel demand growth in India. Key
downside risks to the business are, 1) delay in the execution, 2) lower than
expected tariffs, 3) adverse change in regulations, 4) lower than expected PLFs,
and, 5) availability of quality management and personnel, 6) delay in attaining
environmental/other clearances for the mines.
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