23 October 2011

India Pharma: Strong domestic growth ::CLSA

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Strong domestic growth
Domestic pharmaceutical market continued to grow strongly in Sept
2011. As per AIOCD, domestic market growth stood at 15% one of the
strongest month in 2011. Barring single digit growth in July, most months
have recorded c. 14% growth. Among the larger Indian pharma names,
Sun Pharma and Lupin have been the most consistent in growth
throughout the year while Cipla and Dr Reddy’s have been consistent
laggards. While Sun Pharma has seen some benefit from addition of
Merck’s Januvia, Cadila’s growth rate has been impacted by joint venture
Bayer (some sales are now reported as part of the JV).
Strong domestic market growth
q Domestic formulations growth for the month September 2011 grew
strongly at 15%.
q July was the only month in 2011 to have seen single digit growth. In
general Aug-Sept have seen pick from slower growth rate seen in Jun-Jul
that became a bit of concern for a lot of investors.
q Apart from slow growth in acute therapies, volume discounts by some of
the companies have been contributing to growth pressures in our view.
q Sun Pharma has seen additional benefit coming from launch of sitagliptin
(Januvia) and sitagliptin plus metformin (Janumet) in 1QFY12 in India as
per agreement with Merck.
q Cadila’s market growth rate appears slower due to part shifting of
products to the joint venture with Bayer.
MNCs doing well
q Growth rates in MNC pharma companies have also improved and that too
led by their core products.
q Competition has been increasing with a couple of MNC pharma companies
that have become aggressive in launching generics and have enhanced
marketing efforts.
Sun Pharma and Lupin have been most consistent
q Among the larger Indian pharma names, Sun Pharma and Lupin have
been the most consistent in growth throughout the year.
q IPCA and Torrent have seen their growth rates slip in recent months while
domestic growth for Cipla and Dr. Reddy’s have been weak throughout
the year.

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