Southwest Monsoon - Steady progress ::Emkay

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Southwest Monsoon

Steady progress

Steady progress

The rainfall has shown steady progress over the last four weeks. Having covered ~80% of its full season, the monsoon is entering its last month. The rainfall for the week ended August 31, 2011 was, ~18% above its long period average (LPA). The cumulative rainfall for the week ended August 31, 2011 stood at 0.4% above its LPA.

The number of divisions experiencing excess/normal rainfall remained unchanged at 32 from last week. The number of regions experiencing scanty rainfall stood at 4 and has not changed since last three weeks.

…with further improvement in rain dependent areas

Till the week ended Aug 31, 2011, cumulative rainfall in rain dependent areas further improved to 6.8% above normal from 3.4% above normal in preceding week. The improvement was primarily drive by higher rainfall in Maharashtra and Gujarat region. Moreover rainfall in the eastern region like orissa and chattisgarh also reported improvement in rainfall, though continues to remain deficient with 9-17% below normal rainfall for the season. 

Reservoir levels at 73% of their FRL’s

The reservoir levels stand at 73% of their full reservoir level (FRL) as against 58% Long Period Average (LPA).

Forecast rainfall for West coast, central and north eastern states

West coast, many parts of central and north eastern states likely to receive fairly widespread rainfall activity.  However south peninsula and parts of east India likely to receive subdued rainfall activity over next week.

Overall acreage improves; Pulses and coarse cereals reported substantial decline in acreage

Though acreage under major crops increased by ~3% to ~100mn hectare, crops like Pulses and Coarse cereals reported decline of 10.6% and 7.2% in acreage.