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Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Key takeaways
We expect strong momentum in services and pick up in investment spends, as clarity emerges on the interest rate front, to drive growth in FY12. We maintain our GDP estimate for FY12 at 7.8% yoy.
GDP growth for Q1FY12 came in at 7.7% yoy, in line with market expectations. Strong growth in manufacturing segment (7.2% yoy) and services (10% yoy) lead the overall growth momentum. Agricultural growth moderated to 3.9% yoy on account of a higher base. While private consumption remained healthy at 6.3% yoy, growth in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) surprised positively at 7.9% yoy. Overall, while GDP growth has moderated to 7.7% yoy in Q1FY12 from 8.8% yoy in Q1FY11, the extent of moderation has been lower than anticipated. Further, data revisions have also buffered growth moderation to an extent. Going ahead, we expect strong momentum in services and pick up in investment spends, as clarity emerges on the interest rate front, to drive growth in FY12. We maintain our GDP estimate for FY12 at 7.8% yoy.
Real (% yoy)
|
Nominal (% yoy)
| |||||
Q1FY11
|
Q4FY11
|
Q1FY12
|
Q1FY11
|
Q4FY11
|
Q1FY12
| |
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
|
2.4
|
7.5
|
3.9
|
26.3
|
25.6
|
16.7
|
Mining & quarrying
|
7.4
|
1.7
|
1.8
|
26.9
|
19.1
|
14.4
|
Manufacturing
|
10.6
|
5.5
|
7.2
|
18.3
|
11.3
|
13.8
|
Electricity, gas & water supply
|
5.5
|
7.8
|
7.9
|
12.7
|
11.6
|
8.2
|
Construction
|
7.7
|
8.2
|
1.2
|
19.0
|
17.6
|
10.7
|
Industry
|
9.1
|
6.1
|
5.1
|
19.0
|
15.0
|
12.6
|
Trade, hotels, transport & commn.
|
12.1
|
9.3
|
12.8
|
20.4
|
14.1
|
20.5
|
Financing, insurance, real estate & business services
|
9.8
|
9.0
|
9.1
|
21.2
|
18.8
|
19.1
|
Community, social & personal services
|
8.2
|
7.0
|
5.6
|
21.1
|
16.7
|
15.3
|
Services
|
10.4
|
8.0
|
10.0
|
20.8
|
15.4
|
18.8
|
GDP at factor cost
|
8.8
|
7.4
|
7.7
|
21.3
|
17.1
|
16.7
|
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
|
9.5
|
8.0
|
6.3
|
21.2
|
17.0
|
16.3
|
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
|
6.7
|
4.9
|
2.1
|
20.7
|
14.6
|
11.3
|
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
|
11.1
|
0.4
|
7.9
|
18.5
|
7.1
|
14.2
|
Exports
|
9.8
|
25.0
|
24.3
|
23.3
|
37.1
|
35.2
|
Less Imports
|
15.2
|
10.3
|
23.6
|
27.2
|
21.1
|
32.9
|
GDP at market prices
|
9.1
|
7.7
|
8.5
|
22.1
|
17.9
|
17.5
|
IDFC Securities Research
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