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UBS Investment Research
First Read: Ranbaxy
U S launch of Lipitor generic on track
Event: Chairman confirms timely launch of Lipitor generic in US
Ranbaxy’s Chairman, Tsutomu Une, in an interview to Nikkei (as reported by
Reuters) confirmed that the generic version of Lipitor is to be launched in US at
the end of November as planned. Mr. Une also said USFDA fine would likely be
lower than media reports of $1billion. He also reportedly said that Ranbaxy would
not sell its marketing rights to another firm.
Impact: Maintain estimates, inline with expectations
We continue to expect a timely launch of Lipitor generic in the US by Ranbaxy
with a 180 day exclusivity.
Action: Ranbaxy is one of our top picks in Indian Pharma
We continue to like Ranbaxy as one of our top picks in Pharma. The risk-reward
profile remains attractive in our view given its strong US pipeline and likely
improvement in base business margins with resolution of US FDA issues.
Valuation: Maintain Buy, PT Rs 630
We derive our price target from a DCF-based methodology and explicitly forecast
long-term valuation drivers using UBS’s VCAM tool with a WACC of 11%.
Ranbaxy
Ranbaxy, one of India's largest pharmaceutical companies, manufactures and
markets generics, branded generic pharmaceuticals, and active pharmaceutical
ingredients. Ranbaxy's products are sold in over 125 countries. It has
manufacturing operations in 11 countries and a presence in 49. It was
incorporated in 1961 and was listed in 1973. Daiichi Sankyo acquired a 64%
stake in Ranbaxy in 2008. Ranbaxy's key markets, in terms of revenue, are India,
Romania, Russia, the US, and Africa and the EU.
Statement of Risk
We believe risks include regulatory risks, FDA approval, timing of approvals,
litigation (including the appeal process), accounting/disclosure, and product
pricing risk from generics competition. Pricing pressure in the US market
because of increased competition may continue. Margin pressure on account of
appreciation of the rupee could also negatively impact earnings.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
UBS Investment Research
First Read: Ranbaxy
U S launch of Lipitor generic on track
Event: Chairman confirms timely launch of Lipitor generic in US
Ranbaxy’s Chairman, Tsutomu Une, in an interview to Nikkei (as reported by
Reuters) confirmed that the generic version of Lipitor is to be launched in US at
the end of November as planned. Mr. Une also said USFDA fine would likely be
lower than media reports of $1billion. He also reportedly said that Ranbaxy would
not sell its marketing rights to another firm.
Impact: Maintain estimates, inline with expectations
We continue to expect a timely launch of Lipitor generic in the US by Ranbaxy
with a 180 day exclusivity.
Action: Ranbaxy is one of our top picks in Indian Pharma
We continue to like Ranbaxy as one of our top picks in Pharma. The risk-reward
profile remains attractive in our view given its strong US pipeline and likely
improvement in base business margins with resolution of US FDA issues.
Valuation: Maintain Buy, PT Rs 630
We derive our price target from a DCF-based methodology and explicitly forecast
long-term valuation drivers using UBS’s VCAM tool with a WACC of 11%.
Ranbaxy
Ranbaxy, one of India's largest pharmaceutical companies, manufactures and
markets generics, branded generic pharmaceuticals, and active pharmaceutical
ingredients. Ranbaxy's products are sold in over 125 countries. It has
manufacturing operations in 11 countries and a presence in 49. It was
incorporated in 1961 and was listed in 1973. Daiichi Sankyo acquired a 64%
stake in Ranbaxy in 2008. Ranbaxy's key markets, in terms of revenue, are India,
Romania, Russia, the US, and Africa and the EU.
Statement of Risk
We believe risks include regulatory risks, FDA approval, timing of approvals,
litigation (including the appeal process), accounting/disclosure, and product
pricing risk from generics competition. Pricing pressure in the US market
because of increased competition may continue. Margin pressure on account of
appreciation of the rupee could also negatively impact earnings.
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