17 September 2011

IT Spending Survey: Index results flat, but growth forecast now lower:: Goldman Sachs,

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Tech and capital spending indices remain firm, but pricing
index falls again at a rapid rate
Taken in mid-July, our latest survey showed resiliency, with our total IT
spending index (including salaries, services, depreciation, occupancy, etc.)
essentially unchanged at 73.0 from 72.5 in our prior survey. This indicates
that survey respondents continue to expect 2011 IT spending to be above
2010 levels, and marks the second-highest index value since 2007. Also,
after reaching its highest level in four years at 72.5 in our June survey, our
tech capital spending index nudged down to 70.5. Our pricing index
notched down for the second consecutive survey to -0.29 (from -0.13 in
June), with the index now at the lowest level since early 2010 as pricing
was recovering, and showing declines at a rate not seen since 2008.
Trimming 2011 IT spend forecast, introducing initial 2012
with a lower growth bias as macro slows
After updating the many macro and micro inputs to our GS Technology
spending model, we are reducing our 2011 IT spending forecast to 5% yoy
from 6%. In addition, we introduce our initial 2012 IT spending forecast at
3%, which reflects our advanced economies and emerging markets
forecasts. We note that our 2012 IT spending growth forecast is 2% below
the Street’s revenue growth forecast for enterprise-facing tech companies,
reflecting our cautious stance. This is consistent with recent estimate
reductions across our TMT coverage.
Share gainers includes a mix of established and emerging
companies
AAPL once again ranked high as a share gainer in the PC segment of the
survey. DELL maintained its historically strong position among corporate
customers. IBM, CSCO, and DELL remained the clear share gainers in
enterprise servers. In storage, NTAP regained its market share momentum,
ranking as the number one share gainer. Given the nascent, ongoing
migration to cloud computing, VMW topped the list of spend gainers in
Software. In Communications Equipment, RVBD moved up to the largest
share gainer on an absolute basis in this survey followed by ARUN. CSCO
remained among the top-three share gainers for the 15th consecutive
survey on an absolute basis.

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