04 September 2011

IIFL 1-Month Portfolio: Bets for September

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Godrej Consumer – BUY


Hindustan Zinc – BUY



Jain Irrigation – BUY


Mahindra & Mahindra – BUY



Sun Pharma – BUY

Long Nifty Put


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Market Outlook
Global stock markets have come back smartly over the past few
sessions from their yearly lows after being on a slippery slope for
quite a while. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's recent remarks
suggest that the US central bank is confident of growth picking up
later this year. Not only that, the FOMC meet in September has been
extended to two days to take stock of the current conditions and
frame an appropriate policy response. Back home, the Parliament’s
unanimous resolution on the Lokpal issue after a constructive
discussion has fuelled expectations that a few key reform bills may
get cleared soon. Meanwhile, India's economic growth eased to 7.7%
yoy in the April to June quarter.
For September, we expect more volatility amid persistent
uncertainty surrounding the domestic as well as overseas macroeconomic
conditions. Although the markets have retraced from
recent lows, the sustainability of the advance is in doubt. At the
same time, markets can rise further if the RBI signals an end to its
monetary tightening cycle on Sept. 16. Pick up in monsoon, a trend
reversal in the FII flows and positive announcements on the policy
front could also add to the buoyancy.
Portfolio Brief
This month we recommend four fresh stocks Godrej Consumer, HZL,
M&M and Sun Pharma while retaining Jain Irrigation. Considering
that the domestic indices have corrected sharply, we have reduced
the cash level in our portfolio, while maintaining a hedge to the
portfolio against a steep correction.
Previous month portfolio performance
Our August month portfolio delivered a weighted average profit of
3.9%, outperforming the benchmark Nifty by 1,270bps. The positive
return was large due to the hedge taken for the portfolio.
Note: Executable size of the portfolio is ~Rs133,333 (minimum) and in multiples thereof.
It has been mentioned to facilitate precise investment allocation and return calculation

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