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India Equity Strategy: Food grain output to touch new highs [Abhishek Saraf]
Encouraged by the strong monsoon season thus far and a consequent increase in the crop acreage, the Ministry of Agriculture expects another robust year for agricultural output in the 2011-12 crop year (July-June). In the first advance estimates, the Indian government has pegged production of key kharif crops (summer sown - autumn harvested) to increase by 1.5% yoy, driven primarily by expectations of an increase in the production of rice (+8% yoy), fibre crops, (cotton: +8% yoy, jute: +6%), oil seeds (+1%) and sugarcane (+1%). This should aid the government in achieving its target of a record 245mn tonnes in food grain output in 2011-12 (building on an already record-high 2010-11 food grain production of 241.6mn tonnes).
Oil & Gas: Government considering limiting LPG losses [Harshad Katkar]
Media reports (Business Today) indicate that an EGoM, meeting on Friday 16 Sep 2011 headed by the Finance Minister, is likely to consider capping the number of subsidized LPG cylinders to 4 or 6 per households. Our view: The GoI is trying various measures to contain rising oil under-recoveries (FY12 DBe of INR1.17tn on Brent price forecast of US$114.2/bbl). We estimate under-recovery on LPG to increase from 28% of the total in FY11 to 31% in FY12 and further to 37% in FY13. However, we believe that it is unlikely that the GoI will raise fuel prices in the near term given that WPI inflation is still above 9% and that prices have already been increased once in June 2011.
Bharti Airtel Limited: Concerns on impact of INR depreciation likely overdone [Srinivas Rao]
The INR has depreciated 3.7% versus the USD over the last two weeks. This has led to concerns regarding Bharti due to the elevated level of USD denominated debt on its balance sheet. While the translation losses could be material, the impact on finance costs and recurring profit should be minimal. We maintain our BUY rating with target price of Rs 460. Our FY12E/13E/14E EPS estimates are Rs26.5/38.6/45.3.
Tata Motors Ltd: Aug-11: Strong Land Rover volumes buttressed by Evoque [Srinivas Rao]
Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) overall volumes for August 2011 are strong at 21,242 units (+31% YoY). YTD volumes stand at 102,446 units (+10% YoY) compared to our full year FY12E estimate of 285K units (+18% YoY). The volumes for August include 1,750 units of the new Range Rover "Evoque". We expect the monthly run-rate to increase in 2HFY12 as the deliveries of the "Evoque" pick up and the new 2.2L diesel Jaguar is launched in Europe/UK.
Wipro: Notes from DB's 2011 Technology Conference [Aniruddha Bhosale]
Wipro’ Sridhar Ramasubbu - CFO, International Operations presented at our Technology Conference in the USA yesterday. In a fairly bullish presentation, he mentioned that they have good visibility for the next 2-3 quarters and are not seeing any immediate signs of slowdown in spending by clients.
Asia Economics Special: Rupee's long term risks greater than short term [Taimur Baig]
Asia Local Markets Weekly: RBI stands alone [Sameer Goel]
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
India Equity Strategy: Food grain output to touch new highs [Abhishek Saraf]
Encouraged by the strong monsoon season thus far and a consequent increase in the crop acreage, the Ministry of Agriculture expects another robust year for agricultural output in the 2011-12 crop year (July-June). In the first advance estimates, the Indian government has pegged production of key kharif crops (summer sown - autumn harvested) to increase by 1.5% yoy, driven primarily by expectations of an increase in the production of rice (+8% yoy), fibre crops, (cotton: +8% yoy, jute: +6%), oil seeds (+1%) and sugarcane (+1%). This should aid the government in achieving its target of a record 245mn tonnes in food grain output in 2011-12 (building on an already record-high 2010-11 food grain production of 241.6mn tonnes).
Oil & Gas: Government considering limiting LPG losses [Harshad Katkar]
Media reports (Business Today) indicate that an EGoM, meeting on Friday 16 Sep 2011 headed by the Finance Minister, is likely to consider capping the number of subsidized LPG cylinders to 4 or 6 per households. Our view: The GoI is trying various measures to contain rising oil under-recoveries (FY12 DBe of INR1.17tn on Brent price forecast of US$114.2/bbl). We estimate under-recovery on LPG to increase from 28% of the total in FY11 to 31% in FY12 and further to 37% in FY13. However, we believe that it is unlikely that the GoI will raise fuel prices in the near term given that WPI inflation is still above 9% and that prices have already been increased once in June 2011.
Bharti Airtel Limited: Concerns on impact of INR depreciation likely overdone [Srinivas Rao]
The INR has depreciated 3.7% versus the USD over the last two weeks. This has led to concerns regarding Bharti due to the elevated level of USD denominated debt on its balance sheet. While the translation losses could be material, the impact on finance costs and recurring profit should be minimal. We maintain our BUY rating with target price of Rs 460. Our FY12E/13E/14E EPS estimates are Rs26.5/38.6/45.3.
Tata Motors Ltd: Aug-11: Strong Land Rover volumes buttressed by Evoque [Srinivas Rao]
Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) overall volumes for August 2011 are strong at 21,242 units (+31% YoY). YTD volumes stand at 102,446 units (+10% YoY) compared to our full year FY12E estimate of 285K units (+18% YoY). The volumes for August include 1,750 units of the new Range Rover "Evoque". We expect the monthly run-rate to increase in 2HFY12 as the deliveries of the "Evoque" pick up and the new 2.2L diesel Jaguar is launched in Europe/UK.
Wipro: Notes from DB's 2011 Technology Conference [Aniruddha Bhosale]
Wipro’ Sridhar Ramasubbu - CFO, International Operations presented at our Technology Conference in the USA yesterday. In a fairly bullish presentation, he mentioned that they have good visibility for the next 2-3 quarters and are not seeing any immediate signs of slowdown in spending by clients.
Asia Economics Special: Rupee's long term risks greater than short term [Taimur Baig]
Asia Local Markets Weekly: RBI stands alone [Sameer Goel]
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