14 September 2011

Dish TV (DSTV.BO, Buy, PT Rs110, 44% upside) UBS: India Mid-Caps TOP PICKS - September 2011

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• First and largest satellite TV operator in India with 8.9m net
subs base (as at June 2011) and ~31% market share. Only
listed pure play with strong brand presence, broad distribution
network and significant scale benefits
• Likely to achieve net profit and free cash flow break-even in
FY12E
• Beneficiary of fast-growing DTH subscriber base; subscriber
base to grow led by - rising income levels, increasing awareness
of better quality DTH platform, sports-heavy calendar in 2011,
and lower prices for new connections; Implementation of
mandatory digitalization in the medium term
• ARPU likely to pick up from current levels, content costs to
decline as percentage of sales in FY12E - fixed contracts for
content with most large broadcasters; Only one contract to get
renewed in FY12
• Shareholding - Promoter 65%
• Valuation: DCF based methodology using UBS’s VCAM tool
(assume WACC of 12.6% and terminal sales growth of 4%).
Implied FY13E EV/EBITDA - 15x



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