20 September 2011

Buy DLF: Greater visibility on asset sale ::CLSA

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Greater visibility on asset sale
Post the two project launches seen in 1Q, DLF has not seen any new
launch so far in 2Q, putting the onus of posting good sales numbers
entirely on the last fortnight. Meanwhile, newsflow has been strong on
the asset sale side with c.Rs25-30bn on asset sale appears possible in
FY12. These should trigger a debt reduction, boosting management
credibility on the issue. We also believe that, the proposed land sale bill
will benefit existing land lords like DLF.
Launches lacklustre so far in 2Q, quarter end push awaited
With no new launches so far in the quarter, sales for 2Q may disappoint.
Currently, DLF is marketing a new offering in Bengaluru (Maiden Heights,
Rajapura, affordable apartments). Some pre-marketing had also been done of
plotted developments at Lucknow and Panchkula; though some of these may
get pushed out to 3Q. However, we note that DLF launched its Garden City,
Gurgaon project right at the quarter end in 1Q (30th June), implying 2Q is still
not a write-off.
Near term visibility on Rs15bn of asset sales
This time, DLF seems to be more committed on the asset sale front. It has
reportedly concluded a sale of a 28 acre land parcel in Gurgaon of Rs4.4bn.
The sale of DLF’s IT-SEZ in Pune (DLF holds 70%) is currently awaiting an
approval from BoA (Board of Approval) which might come through on the 19th
Sep. The law ministry has already given a favourable opinion on the proposed
stake sale. Combined with a sale of IT-Park in Noida for Rs5bn, these deals
will imply a pre-tax inflow of Rs15bn for DLF’s 70% stake.
Aman sale process nearing conclusion as well
DLF’s proposed sale of Aman hotels has moved forward with financial bids and
deal conditions from the five shortlisted bidders (13 initial) expected to be
received soon. A finalization of the same is expected in 3Q and can be worth
Rs15-20bn. While recent media reports talk about Central Mumbai land sale
(17.5 acres, Rs30-40bn reported value) but we believe that the value may be
lower and also unlikely in the near-future.
Land bill impact may not be negative
DLF is one of the largest land bank owner (363m sf) and hence will be a
relatively beneficiary of the proposed land acquisition bill. The ‘retrospective’
part of the compensation package is not clear but since bulk of DLF’s land has
been accumulated through mutual negotiations, it should be safe. On the
other hand, rising costs of land acquisition may provide an upside to our
estimated Rs198/share land value of DLF.

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