19 September 2011

Buy Bharat Petroleum Corp. (BPCL.BO) Research Tactical Idea ::Morgan Stanley Research,

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Bharat Petroleum Corp. (BPCL.BO)
Research Tactical Idea
We believe the share price will rise relative to the country index over the next 30 days.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) today announced a hike in retail gasoline prices of 4.9% , the second in the last four
months, taking the cumulative hike to 34% since June 2010, when gasoline was decontrolled. This is more in sync with the
crude oil price increase of 48% during the same time. We view today's move as a key positive for OMCs, as this proves
that the price decontrol for gasoline is now real.
We estimate that there is about a 70% to 80% or "very likely" probability for the scenario.
Estimated probabilities are illustrative and assigned subjectively based on our assessment of the likelihood of the
scenario.
Stock Rating: Overweight
Industry View: Attractive

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