22 August 2011

UNITY INFRAPROJECTS:: : BUY TARGET PRICE: RS.86 ::Kotak Sec,

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UNITY INFRAPROJECTS LTD
PRICE: RS.53 RECOMMENDATION: BUY
TARGET PRICE: RS.86 FY12E P/E: 4.0X
Result highlights: Results were better than our estimates and led by
improved execution and lower than expected interest outgo. Stock is
currently trading at very attractive valuations and we continue to maintain
BUY on the company.
q Revenue growth stood at 11% YoY, in line with our estimates. This was
led by strong order book and improved execution.
q Operating margins remained strong at 13% for Q1FY12 and company expects
to maintain margins at the current levels going forward.
q Net profit growth was better than our estimates due to strong margins
and lower than expected interest outgo.
q We tweak our valuation multiples to factor in de-rating of the sector due
to high interest rates and high working capital requirements. We also
reduce valuations for the real estate segment due to delays seen in
launch of projects in Bangalore and Kolkata. We arrive at a revised price
target of Rs 86 (Rs 109 earlier) on FY12 estimates and continue to maintain
BUY on the company.


Revenue growth in line with our estimates
n Revenue growth stood at 11% YoY, in line with our estimates. This was led by
strong order book and improved execution.
n Order inflow during Q1FY12 stood at Rs 7.5 bn and current order book of company
stands at Rs 34.78 bn. This order book is diversified across civil (53%),
water supply and irrigation (35%) and transportation (12%). Revenues during
Q1FY12 were diversified across civil (54%), civil (32%) and others(14%).
n Company has guided for an order book growth of 30-35% during FY12. It is L1
in orders worth Rs 15.5 bn worth of orders spread across building, water and remaining
in transportation. These orders are likely to be finalized during Q2FY12.
n We however continue to remain conservative in our estimates and maintain our
estimates and expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 12% in FY11-FY13.
Operating margins led by higher margin projects in the order
book
n Operating margins remained strong at 13% for Q1FY12 and company expects to
maintain margins at the current levels going forward.
n We maintain our estimates and expect margins to be 12.5% going forward.
High interest rates continued to hurt the profits
n Net profit growth was better than our estimates due to strong margins and lower
than expected interest outgo.
n High interest rates and higher borrowings continued to impact the net profit
growth of the company. Company plans to reduce high cost borrowings by end
of FY12 through low cost ECB funds or by selling stake in Nagpur real estate
project.
n We maintain our estimates and expect profits to grow at a CAGR of 10% between
FY11-FY13.
Valuation and recommendation
n At current price of Rs 53, stock is trading very attractive valuations of at 4x and
3.5x P/E and 3.9x and 3.7x EV/EBITDA multiples for FY12 and FY13 respectively.
n We tweak our valuation multiples to factor in de-rating of the sector due to high
interest rates and high working capital requirements. We also reduce valuations
for the real estate segment due to delays seen in launch of projects in Bangalore
and Kolkata.
n We arrive at a revised price target of Rs 86 (Rs 109 earlier) on FY12 estimates
based on 6.5x one year forward estimated earnings and continue to maintain
BUY on the company.

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