07 August 2011

UBS - Asia Oil Explorer :Crude prices decline on weak US data

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UBS Investment Research
Asia Oil Explorer
C rude prices decline on weak US data
�� US crude stocks rise due to the release from strategic reserves
The WTI crude oil price fell 4.0%, ending last week at US$95.7/bbl, after touching
a six-week high the previous week. Brent price fell 1.3% to US$116.8/bbl. Oil
prices posted a weekly loss on data indicating weak US economic growth. Reports
showed a weaker-than-expected 1.3% expansion of the US economy in Q2.
According to the US Department of Energy (DOE), for the week ended 22 July,
crude inventories rose 2.3mbbls primarily due to the release from Strategic
Petroleum reserves. Gasoline and distillate stocks rose 1.0mbbls and 3.4mbbls,
respectively.
�� Refining margins improve WoW; petchem spreads rise
The Reuters Singapore complex refining margin index averaged US$7.9/bbl last
week, up from an average US$7.0/bbl the previous week. Gasoline spread (to
Dubai crude) improved by US$1.5/bbl, while fuel oil spread rose US$0.4/bbl.
Petrochemical spreads posted gains last week, with the PX-naphtha spread rising
9.5% WoW to close at US$596/t. The ethylene and HDPE spread to naphtha also
rose 8.7% and 5.0% WoW, respectively.
�� E&P stocks have outperformed in the past month
For the month ended 1 August and based on simple average performance, E&P
stocks in Asia under UBS coverage rose 3.5%, while, on an average, refining and
integrated stocks rose 2.6% and 1.2%, respectively.
�� Top picks
Our most preferred stocks in Asia are Sinopec, SinoTech, PTT Chemical, Reliance
Industries, and SK Innovation.

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