14 August 2011

Tata Motors- Jul'11 India sales decline on falling passenger car sales, LCV's hold up- JPMorgan,

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Tata Motors Overweight
TAMO.BO, TTMT IN
Jul'11 India sales decline on falling passenger car
sales, LCV's hold up


 July India sales decline -6% yoy led by passenger cars, while CV's hold
up: Tata Motors’ India sales (including exports) came in at 63,761 vehicles
(-6% yoy). While domestic commercial vehicle sales held up at +14% yoy,
domestic passenger vehicles sales (-39% yoy) declined sharply. Exports
were up +36% yoy.
 Heavy Commercial Vehicle sales growth is sedate (+4% yoy): The
domestic M&HCV sales growth was muted at 15,836 units - the M/HCV
industry has been witnessing anemic growth given slowing IIP and a
demanding base effect. Tata Motors has gained market share during the
quarter, given its broad based product / geographical reach.
 LCV sales growth +22% yoy sustains – LCV sales continued their strong
uptrend at 24,962 units. Despite a challenging environment, sales of ultra
light tonne trucks continues to be driven by demand for last mile distribution
- especially in semi urban India.
 Passenger car sales (-39% yoy) decline sharply: The domestic passenger
vehicle sales reported offtake of 18,924 units (17,192 Tata + 1,102 Fiat),
down -39% yoy. Nano sales at 3,260 units were down -64% yoy. Indica
sales at 5,860 units declined -32% yoy while Indigo sales were down by
-30% to 4,877 units. SUVs (Sumo/Safari/Aria) sales came at 3,195 units
(down 2% yoy). Passenger car sales have been declining given rising
competitive intensity as well as moderating industry growth.
 Exports are up 36% yoy: The OEM reported export sales of 5,771 units
(+36% yoy) in July. The cumulative export sales for the fiscal are at 20,567
nos. (+25% yoy).
 Outlook: On the domestic segment, we believe that growth rates will be
impacted given the impact of the recent interest rate hike. Global sales will
likely be driven by the Range Rover ‘Evoque’ (the model has received
18,000 pre bookings already) as well as healthy sales in China.

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