29 August 2011

SINTEX INDUSTRIES: BUY, TP-Rs240 (56% upside)::PINC Power Picks August 2011

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What’s the theme?
Sintex has a diversified business model marked by low volatility in sales, profit and cash flows. It is a
market leader in the Monolithic and Prefab segment.
What will move the stock?
We like Sintex primarily because of: -
􀁺 Its market leadership in the prime Monolithic and Prefab segments which are expected to show CAGR
of 25% and 27% during FY11-FY13E respectively.
􀁺 Acquisition of overseas and domestic subsidiaries showing operational improvement.
􀁺 Further WC improvement leading to increase in operational cash flow.
Where are we stacked versus consensus?
Our earnings EPS estimates for FY12 and FY13 are Rs20.2 and Rs23.6 respectively. Our FY12 earnings
estimate is 2% higher than consensus estimate of Rs19.9. We have a 'BUY' recommendation on the stock
with a target price of Rs240, which discounts FY12E earnings by 12x.
What will challenge our target price?
􀁺 Execution risks in the Monolithic and Prefab segments.
􀁺 Fluctuation in raw material prices denting margin.
􀁺 Delay in improvement of subsidiaries.

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