18 August 2011

Jagran Prakashan (JPL) ( TP: `148/ Upside:32%) :Angel Broking, TOP PICKS

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􀂄 JPL continues to remain the leader in UP (India’s largest state) and stands at No. 2
in Bihar (the second-largest state), with overall readership of ~5.4cr and covering
~70% of Hindi speaking readers. The company successfully launched Punjabi Jagran
in 1QFY2012 (now JPL caters to five different languages). JPL also launched the
11th edition of The Inquilab, the largest read Urdu newspaper in UP and
New Delhi, through its subsidiary Mid-Day Infomedia Ltd. Further, City Plus launched
four more editions, now totaling 30 editions.
􀂄 We expect JPL to post a 9% CAGR in its top line over FY2011-13E, driven by the
~10% CAGR in advertising and a ~3% CAGR in circulation revenue. The other
businesses and MML are estimated to record a CAGR of ~11% and 13%,
respectively, over FY2011-13E on better traction. In terms of earnings, we expect
JPL to report a 10% CAGR over FY2011-13E, driven by top-line growth and various
cost-curtailment measures and improving profitability in the nascent businesses.
􀂄 The underperformance of the stock and attractive valuations (at the CMP, the stock
trades at 13.9x FY2013E EPS) provide a good entry point for investors. Hence,
we maintain our Buy view with a revised target price of `148, based on a P/E
multiple of 18x FY2013E (in-line with its historical valuations).

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